advantage of rejection and extreme uncertainty

Although the Constituent Convention was installed last year with an approval close to 60%, there were “certain controversies” linked to its members, of which the majority did not belong to political parties, who “defrauded a good part of the people who bet on these new names as carriers of the popular will”, said Rodrigo Espinoza, academic coordinator of the School of Political Science of the Diego Portales University.

According to Espinoza, the “fake news” campaign promoted from the right also contributed to this, which translated into fear on the part of the undecided population, which is estimated to be between 10 and 15%.

polls

The latest polls generally give a victory to rejection with around 45% of voting intentions, while approval would reach 35%.

For the constitutional lawyer Javier Couso, who is also an academic at the Diego Portales University, the fact that the conventional independents have not identified themselves within the traditional parties, but that later the majority of them have shown themselves more inclined to the left plays into their hands. against in the polls.

For his part, the political scientist Marcelo Mella Polanco pointed out that “this new project does not connect with the common sense of the majority of the electorate, who want changes, but gradually.”

In fact, the content of the new Magna Carta has received criticism from both the right and from the ruling party, which proposes modifications in the case of winning approval, considering it controversial in some aspects, such as the new Judicial Power, indigenous consent for constitutional changes, the replacement of the Senate by a Chamber of the Regions and the presidential re-election.

Mella believed that if he won the rejection, it would enhance “the recovery of the political center in Chile”, while if he won the “yes” vote, polarization and pressure on the Boric government to implement the constitutional text would increase.

scenarios

“The ‘approval’ scenario favors a logic of greater polarization. The scenario of rejection means, in my opinion, a scenario or entails a scenario of convergence towards the center of the actors, of the moderate actors, in the search to successfully complete the constituent process in a second impulse”, he explained, referring to to the position of certain sectors of the right, which promote the vote against, but are in favor of reforms of the current text.

For this reason, Espinoza believed that, if the rejection was overcome by a minimum margin, it would give rise to a new Constituent process, but that this would take months and even years, with greater moderation in terms of the points on gender parity and rights of the native peoples.

On the other hand, if the margin were very wide in favor of rejection, this could lead to attempts to destabilize the government, due to the alleged electoral interventionism of which the ruling party is accused.

In this election, the vote will be compulsory for the first time for all those over 18 years of age, which should increase the number of voters, for which historical figures are expected, in a country that has barely exceeded 50% of electoral participation. in previous years.

Despite the expectations, Couso believes that there is no way to determine the influence of the new voters, which he estimates at approximately two million, especially considering that at least half a million Chileans living abroad are not registered with the Service. Electoral and will not be able to vote. “We are in a very high electoral uncertainty,” he said.

For his part, Mella considered that there will inevitably be massive participation due to the mandatory nature of the elections, and pointed out that the age group over 40 will be decisive, which identifies more with the conservative sectors and, therefore, ruled out that there is a progressive result similar to the last two elections.