The situation may darken the outlook for the global coffee market in 2023, leading to higher prices. The world market is counting on a large production from Brazil next year to offset two years of below-average harvests due to frost and drought.
Partial flowering, which occurs before the rainy season, would harm the growth prospects of the crop because it expends the plants’ energy before the expected main flowering, which usually occurs in late September or October.
“We have seen blooming occurrences in some areas like southern Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. But it is still too dry, so they will most likely not thrive,” said Matheus Grossi, a farmer and agronomist.
“Everything indicates that this first bloom will not help next year’s crop. We hope that there are others with more potential ahead,” said Jonas Ferraresso, a coffee agronomist who advises several farms in the states of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais in Brazil.
He added that before the rains of September and October, the plants are using all the energy they have to stay healthy, and the flowers “steal” part of that vital energy.
Fernando Barbosa, a farmer from southern Minas Gerais, shared videos of flowers withering on his farm on social media. “These August shoots will hardly bear fruit. We will wait for the next ones,” he said.
Current soil moisture in southern Minas Gerais is only above last year, when there was a historic drought, according to Refinitiv’s agriculture weather dashboard. It is less than 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016.
The forecasts announce some rains for mid-September.
(Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira. Edited in Spanish by Manuel Farías)
Source: Ambito
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