The difference in this survey between Lula, president between 2003 and 2010, and Bolsonaro, who is running for re-election, is 13 points. Regarding the previous survey of August 29 by the Ipec institute (former Ibope), Lula remained at 44% while Bolsonaro, candidate of the Liberal Partyfell 1 point, from 32 to 31%.
This survey was conducted after first election debate in Brazil and after a week of propaganda and also showed that the rejection of the government Bolsonaro’s is 57%.
The third in the electoral contest is the former minister Cyrus Gomez, of the Democratic Labor Party, with 8%, followed by Senator Simone Tebbetof the Brazilian Democracy Movement (MDB) of former president Michel Temer, with 4%.
Gomes and Tebet grew one point eachsupported by their performance in the electoral debate, which gave them greater visibility before a polarized stage between the former metallurgist Lula and the former captain of the Bolsonaro Army.
Blank votes, keys in the elections
The key to the next election in Brazil lies in this data: the blank votes They added 6% and those who answered that they do not know who they are going to vote for represent 5%, according to the Ipec survey.
But Lula still has a chance of winning in the first round, which is achieved when a candidate has half plus one of the votes.
Just by counting the valid votes, without blanks or annulments, just as the electoral justice system does on election day, Lula is on the verge of becoming president-elect on October 2.
The Ipec survey gives it 50% of the valid votes, within the margin of error of 2 points up or down that the sample has, considered among the two best reputed in Brazil along with that of Datafolhawhich last week reduced the former president’s chances of being elected in the first round, with 45% of the valid votes.
The vote is consolidated like never before: 79% of voters said there is no chance of changing it.
Meanwhile, 85% believed that the dissemination of news could influence the elections, as happened in 2018 with the victory of Bolsonaro.
In case of runoffAccording to Ipec, Lula has a 52% preference against Bolsonaro’s 36%.
There is more preference for Lula among women and the poorest population, while Bolsonaro dominates among the richest and among those who adhere to the evangelical cult.
Source: Ambito
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