According to the survey by “Unique Research”, Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen can count on 59 percent of the votes. This is less than in the last survey in August. His FPÖ competitor Walter Rosenkranz has 13 percent, closely followed by right-wing candidates like Gerald Grosz (9 percent). The survey was conducted by telephone and online between September 7th and 15th. First, 1,600 Austrians aged 16 and over were asked what the chances are from today’s perspective that they will vote on October 9th. 62 percent stated that they would “definitely” go to the polls (range of variation 2.5 percent).
The Sunday question – “Assuming the next presidential election would be next Sunday, who would you vote for?” – was then only asked of those 62 percent (993 respondents) who definitely want to go to the polls (range of fluctuation 3.1 percent).
According to the estimate, 59 percent of those polled would vote for incumbent Van der Bellen. In a comparable “Unique Research” survey, it was still 66 percent. According to pollster Peter Hajek, these losses were to be expected, “because the rest of the field of competitors was still vague in mid-August.” Van der Bellen has “all the trumps in his hands”, Hajek analyzes based on the detailed results of the survey: his electorate is “very well mobilized” and is also very sure that they will vote for Van der Bellen, while that is not the case with the competition. In addition, Van den Bellen can build on broad support from the electorate of the SPÖ, ÖVP, Greens and NEOS. “From today’s perspective everything speaks for the incumbent, a runoff election seems unlikely – as long as there are no more surprises in the intensive election campaign.”
Rosary: Electorate well mobilized
Second place is currently designated for FPÖ candidate Rosencrantz; as in August, it is 13 percent. “Walter Rosenkranz is currently unable to exploit the FPÖ’s potential, which is also due to the great competition on the right-wing camp,” especially Gerald Grosz, said Hajek. The blogger and former FPÖ/BZÖ politician Grosz was able to increase in the survey from 6 to 9 percent. “Second place (for Rosenkranz) isn’t statistically secure yet, since the lead over Grosz isn’t significant,” stressed Hajek. Rosenkranz’s advantages are that his electorate is well mobilized and, unlike his competitors, he can count on the support of the FPÖ party apparatus. Grosz, on the other hand, has positioned itself well with a clear line and communication.
The former “Krone” columnist and lawyer Tassilo Wallentin, who is fishing in a similar pool of voters, also received 8 percent more approval in the survey than in August (6 percent). Wallentin collects votes from the FPÖ, but also from the SPÖ and ÖVP, Hajek explained. For Wallentin, a lot will depend on whether he can still score points in the intensive election campaign.
The musician and beer party boss Dominik Wlazny was able to increase from 5 to 7 percent. Hajek explained that Wlazny is the candidate of the young centre-left electorate. “Particularly SPÖ and NEOS voters, who don’t warm to Van der Bellen, switch to Wlazny.” Hajek analyzed that his electorate had yet to be mobilized.
MFG boss Michael Brunner and shoe manufacturer Heinrich Staudinger will only play a subordinate role, they only get two percent each.
Source: Nachrichten
