The current slackening of the most recent wave in the number of corona infections seems deceptive: Because complexity researcher Peter Klimek not only assumes that, depending on the weather, things will turn around sooner or later, but he also speaks of an extremely high number of unreported cases and cites the Wastewater analyzes hit the spot. In a guest lecture at the meeting of the national Covid crisis coordination (Gecko), Klimek warned accordingly.
The complexity researcher assumes that the actual number of cases could be more than three times as high as the number of positive tests (according to the epidemiological register). A comparison of the virus load measured in the wastewater with the positive tests according to EMS shows that the number of unreported cases has increased significantly over the course of the year, according to the Gecko report published on Friday. The BA.1 wave was used as the norm and it was assumed that the virus load in the wastewater at this time was in a 1:1 ratio to the number of positive tests. At the peak of the BA.2 wave, the virus load in the wastewater was in a ratio of about 1.5:1 to the positive tests. At the peak of the BA.5 wave last summer, the ratio was already 3:1. “We’re now at about 3.5:1,” the report said.
“It is to be expected that the numbers will increase”
In addition to these indications of the status of immunization in the population, Klimek cited seasonal influences and the emergence of new variants. “With the onset of wintry weather and/or the increasing dominance of new variants, a trend reversal towards increasing case numbers can be expected within the next few weeks,” said the complexity researcher. “Should the actual number of infections – including the number of unreported cases – be similar to the previous maximum of the BA.2 wave, this would correspond to a peak that would be about 30 to 40 percent higher than the preliminary peak of the last BA.5 wave. “
Gecko recommends masks in public transport
Not least because of these forecasts, the Gecko continued to recommend wearing FFP2 masks, especially on public transport, in heavily frequented indoor areas and when in contact with vulnerable people. The test offer should continue to be used, especially in the case of symptoms and when meeting with particularly vulnerable people or in groups. Contact persons should be informed in the event of a positive test. To do this, you should be immunized according to the recommendations of the National Vaccination Committee and, if the worst comes to the worst, take Covid medicines against a severe course. Familiar rules such as regular ventilation, keeping your distance and hygiene measures such as washing and disinfecting hands are also still recommended.
XBB already detected 18 times
The gecko also warned of new variants: “Individual variants with new mutations on the spike protein have already been reported several times in Austria. The virus variant XBB (recombinant from BJ.1 and BA.2.75), which is currently part of a new wave in Singapore has been identified 18 times in Austria in the last few weeks.In addition, the variants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have meanwhile overtaken BA.2.75, with BQ.1.1 leading to a stronger immune escape compared to BA.5 due to a specific mutation seems,” the media release said.
Source: Nachrichten
