“There is a stagnation in the reported number of cases. There are no substantial increases in any age group and in any federal state. The wastewater signal also currently suggests a trend towards constant development,” said the forecast published on Wednesday.
The consortium identifies the weather as an uncertainty factor: Changed weather conditions “could, however, lead to seasonal effects driving the infection process in the forecast period”. In the variants, the proportion of mutations BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and BF.7 continues to increase. However, this growth slowed down somewhat in the past week and is therefore “not yet relevant” for the forecast period.
The occupancy forecast assumes a slight decrease in hospitalizations: For the last forecast day, November 23, between 696 and a maximum of 1,137 beds should be occupied by Covid patients, according to the consortium. As of Tuesday morning, 1,190 infected people were being treated in local hospitals, 78 of them in intensive care units. The number of intensive care patients increases with the last forecast day on November 23 in the worst case to 96, the average is 69 intensive care patients.