Since 1962, under the government of Mao Zedong, the country had not registered a decline in its population. Then, with collective policies plus incredible economic growth since the 1980s, the population grew again, until the decline of 2022.
Among the reasons are the plummeting desire to reproduce, and the costs of raising a child, which make us rethink having a large family, as in earlier times.
In 2016, concerned about the country’s rapidly aging population and dwindling workforce (which began shrinking in 2012), China gave up on forcing people not to have more than one child. And in 2021 it passed to a policy of three children per couplewhich did not encourage population growth.
Even a range of incentives – from cash grants to tax breaks and longer maternity leave – have had little impact, and last year 9.56 million children were born, almost 10% less than in 2021.
The total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) was 1.7 a decade ago, but in 2021 it fell below 1.2, according to figures from the UN.
For a population to remain stable, the rate would need to be around 2.1, assuming no net migration and mortality rates remaining unchanged.
The reasons for the fall of the Chinese population
–The cost of raising children. Last year, the YuWa Institute for Demographic Research reported that these expenditures, relative to GDP per person, were higher in China than in several advanced economies, including the United States.
–The costs of a first home. Despite the recent slump in the Chinese real estate market, prices remain high. Couples often postpone marriage until they have bought a place to live. The number of marriages has decreased since 2014.
–Cost of caring for the elderly. Some 35 million Chinese are 80 years or older. By 2050, the number is expected to have more than quadrupled. China’s welfare system is rudimentary, so unless the government massively increases its spending on care, families will bear much of the bill.
Source: Ambito
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