However, the annual figures are still marked by the strong drop in the first month of the year, when the dollar fell a total of 3.29%; therefore, the accumulated drop in 2023 is 1.25%.
But the current behavior of the dollar brings some hope: if the exchange rate continues its upward trend, it could neutralize the sharp drop in January. For it, should reach 40,071 pesoswhich would imply an increase of 0.5 pesos per dollar.
What does the BCU expect?
According to analysts consulted in the BCU Monthly Survey of Economic Expectationsthe dollar will close the year with a price of 42 pesos, figure obtained from the median of responses. This would imply an annual rise in the currency of 7.4%—an increase slightly above inflation projections.
One of the reasons for this estimated rise is the easing of monetary policy by the central bank, which during the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom)decided to keep the reference rates unchanged and, henceforth, some reductions could even be expected from April on.
However, according to the Big Mac Index, the indicator that uses The Economist to calculate the value of the world’s currencies in reference to the value of the famous hamburger Big Macthe dollar in Uruguay should be at 50 Uruguayan pesos; when the real price is almost 11 pesos behind, and the best projections estimate a difference of 8 pesos.
Source: Ambito
