He price of milk in dairy farms improved during February after several months of decline, according to what was published by the National Milk Institute (Inale)and in the midst of the extreme drought that affects all Uruguay.
Taking into account December 2022, the value of milk registered in pesos grew up 4%, although if one considers the price it had a year ago, it fell by 2%. However, if measured in Dollars, prices increased 4% and 9%, considering the same comparisons.
The kilo of solids, fat and protein, which are the essential values for which the dairy industry pays, was 222.8 pesos.
For her part, and strongly affected by the water deficit and the difficulties to get food for the cows, the shipment of milk to the plant fell by 9.3% compared to February 2022. According to the Inale, the accumulated twelve months is 2,075 million liters (1.9% less than a year earlier).
How were the prices of powdered milk?
70% of the milk produced in the country is exportedand the milk powder whole is the most important product in this total.
That is why, depending on what happens in the international market, the Inale technical team prepared two models to estimate the price of milk in dairies in 2023. The first, based on a simulation of probabilities, placed the price between 0.34 and 0.38 dollars. The second model, based on time series, located the dairy milk price for 2023 at $0.37, with a deviation of $0.02.
In the international market, greater production growth is observed in the north and a lagging demand from China, This generates downward pressure on the price. The Asian country decreased the import of dairy products by 16.5% during 2022, and last February they had a drop of 7.2%.
Likewise, according to the vision of the Inale technical team, no significant changes are expected in the prices of whole powdered milk, although they do temporary rises or falls around current levels. For the second half of the year, there are expectations of a recovery in demand from China that could have an impact on a price recovery for the aforementioned product.
Source: Ambito
