The last Economic Expectations Survey made by him Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) showed a downward correction in the projection of how much the dollar at the end of the year to place it at 41.50 pesos.
The value that corresponds to the median of opinions collected by the BCU for its monthly report shows a decrease of 0.50 cents from the previous month when the forecasts of economic agents put the value of the US currency at 42 pesos for December.
Since the beginning of the year, the decrease in the projection of what the exchange rate will be in the last calendar month is 1.42%. In January, the same Survey of Economic Expectations had positioned the dollar at 42.10 pesos for December.
The variation shows an increasingly prudent market regarding the exchange correction that the Central Bank may incur after the depreciation of 10.65% last year as a consequence of the contractive interest rate policy.
Attention is now on the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the monetary authority, scheduled for April 19. The BCU’s annual plan projected a reduction in the reference rate throughout the year in the event that inflation decreased until it was within the government’s target values of 3-6%.
At the moment, the figure seems distant when the last Consumer Price Index (CPI) measured by the National Statistics Institute (INE) returned 7.55% for February. And the effects that the historic drought will have on prices and consumption still remain, analysts warn.
The market also corrected its inflation projections: 7.20% was the average data for this year in the March Inflation Expectations Survey, when in January the value was 7.12%.
Source: Ambito
