He dollar closed in 38,648 pesos this Friday, according to the official price of the interbank Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). Thus, the exchange rate added a new drop of 0.63% in March, a month that initially threatened with the possibility of recovering the values with which the currency began the year, something that ultimately did not happen.
Meanwhile, the US currency shows a negative cumulative variation of 3.55% so far this year. This is especially sensitive data for the Uruguayan export sector, which looks with increasing suspicion at what they consider a true “exchange rate delay” that affects the country’s competitiveness in the international market.
In January it plummeted 3.25%
After sinking 10.35% in 2022, the dollar continued to fall in January with a deep monthly drop of 3.25%. the exchange rate opened the year at 40,071 pesos. However, it was an anomalous figure for its context: on the last day of last year, the currency rose 2.74% in a single day.
Since January 1, the dollar began to absorb all this extraordinary increase and showed a sustained decline that left it at 38,681 pesos3.25% less.
In February, the dollar rose 0.55%
February started, meanwhile, in the basement. From those values, he began a promising climb until he touched the 39.57 pesos on February 16. Until then, the accumulated increase was 2.3%.
With half a month to go, February presented itself as an opportunity to neutralize the collapse of the previous month. However, the exchange rate collapsed again by 2.57% the following two days, a fall that was not reversed. It closed at 38,893 pesos in the interbank price.
However, this number continued to be higher than the initial one, so the second month of the year showed from “end to end” an increase of 0.55%.
March consolidated the red with its fall of 0.63%
From those values began March, which began in its first week with erratic behavior in the exchange rate. From the second, he showed a climb that positioned him, at Thursday 16, at its maximum price in the two previous months –39,679 pesos–.
But the same thing happened in February, from there, he starred in a sustained fall that he left it at just 38,648 pesos, at the close of this Friday. Meanwhile, the third month of the year not only could not neutralize the decline of January but also paid with its negative balance of 0.63% to the accumulated fall of 2023.
Business expectations regarding the dollar
Until now, the dollar has never exceeded the 40-peso floor again at any time in 2023. According to the latest BCU Survey of Economic Expectations, businessmen and economic agents expect a price of 40.35 pesos for August (next semester); and of 41.50 pesos At the end of the year.
In relation to the future, the survey showed that a dollar is expected at 41.96 pesos by February 2024 (next 12 months); of 43.78 pesos by the end of 2024; of 44.45 pesos for the next 24 months (February 2025); and 46.62 pesos by December 2025.
Source: Ambito
