The Good Friday Agreement signed 25 years ago established the possibility of a referendum on the unification of Ireland if a majority so desires, an option that currently does not have the necessary support, although polls indicate that this possibility is gaining supporters, analysts consulted agreed. by Telam.
In the 1998 peace agreement, the British and Irish governments agreed to “recognize the legitimacy of any choice freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland (…) whether they prefer to continue to support Union with Great Britain or an Ireland sovereign union.”
While acknowledging that at the time “the wish of the majority of the people of Northern Ireland” was “to maintain the Union”, they conceded that “in future, the people of the island of Ireland (may) exercise their right of self-determination”. if there is the support “of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland” and “by agreement between the two parties (…) North and South, to achieve a united Ireland”.
“At the moment, the data does not suggest that there is such a majority in Northern Ireland. However, we do know from various surveys and polls that recent years have seen a steady growth in support for Irish unity and rising expectations about it,” Katy Hayward, a professor of Political Sociology at Queen’s University of Belfast, explained to this agency.
The specialist in the three-decade conflict (known as The Troubles or Los Problemas) cited a recent survey that shows that 63% of those consulted affirm that Brexit, the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU), made more a united Ireland likely.
“Also in that same poll, we are now seeing for the first time that more people think a united Ireland is more likely to exist in 20 years than a UK” as it currently exists, he added.
“This is not only related to the dynamics of Irish nationalism, but also to internal tensions within the UK, which became more apparent after Brexit. Those tensions add to the uncertainty felt by unionists, especially in Northern Ireland. And this helps us understand why the political situation in Northern Ireland seems so particularly tense at the moment, and why the future seems so uncertain.”
For his part, Duncan Morrow, an expert on the Northern Ireland conflict at the University of Ulster based in Belfast, told Télam that “many people remain skeptical of a referendum on a united Ireland and most opinion polls show a clear majority against.
In this sense, he assured that the triumph of Sinn Féin, the political arm of the extinct Irish Republican Army (IRA), in last year’s parliamentary elections “is not a guarantee” that progress will be made towards unification on the island.
“But that possibility is being talked about more than ever, and most of the trends among the younger population seem to be going in that direction, so while it may not happen immediately, it seems like a real possibility in the future,” he projected.
The referendum should also be endorsed by the population in the Republic of Ireland, a country that is still a member of the EU and that is experiencing a higher economic development than its neighbors to the north.
Source: Ambito
