The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Cepal) of United Nations published the update of its projections for the region and anticipates a growth of 1.2% during 2023. For Uruguay, expectations were at a 2%almost one point below the previous forecast, in December.
In line with all international organizations, ECLAC also forecast a lower growth for the country and the region in a global economic context marked by contraction and slowdown, as well as by low growth in economic activity and international trade. Added to this are the generalized rises in interest rates, as well as the economic turmoil experienced at the beginning of March —with the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the Credit Suisse.
For this reason, growth expectations they adjusted downwardand ECLAC expects a rate of just 1.2%, in the midst of a deepening slowdown and restrictions for the fiscal and monetary policy.
What are the prospects for Uruguay?
Uruguay is no exception in the region, except for minor exceptions such as, for example, the drop in benchmark interest rates announced yesterday by the Central Bank (BCU) —a situation that was not considered in the ECLAC analysis, but that could have an impact in future studies.
In this way, the Economic Commission for the region projects a growth of 2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year. This figure is in line with the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the country (2%), and just a little above those forecast by the world Bank for the national economy (1.8%).
However, this updated figure implied a 0.9% reduction in projections that the same body had disclosed for the country in December of last year, when ECLAC estimated a growth of 2.9% of the GDP for Uruguay. In that deceleration The drought that hit most of the territory plays a very important role and will generate significant losses, not only for the agricultural sector, but also for the entire economy.
In any case, considering that the growth projection for South America is 0.6%strongly affected by the fall in the prices of basic products and by the restrictions on the space that domestic policy has to prop up activity, as well as by high inflation, the Uruguayan scenario seems to be a little more positive.
At regional level, Paraguayan It is the country that will have the most growth and the only one that exceeds Uruguay, with a projection of 4.2% of GDP, followed by Brazil, with 0.8%. For his part, Argentina and Chili They will see a reduction in their economies during 2023, with forecasts of -2% and -0.3%, respectively, according to ECLAC.
Source: Ambito
