First concrete signal this Wednesday, two days after the coup by the head of the army, General Abdelfatah al Burhan, the African Union (AU) suspended Sudan “until the effective restoration of civilian-led transitional authority.”
Under the dictatorship of Omar al Bashir, Sudan was an outcast for western countries.s. The United States imposed severe sanctions against the regime for harboring Islamist extremists, including al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in the 1990s.
The authoritarian leader was overthrown by his own army in April 2019 after major street protests. A transitional government of civilians and military was established then, which was overthrown with the coup on Monday.
These two years put Sudan on the right track, says Alex de Waal, a seasoned expert on the country and executive director of the World Peace Foundation in the United States.
In December, Washington removed it from its list of countries that sponsor terrorism. And this year it opened the door to a $ 50 billion debt forgiveness and new funding from the IMF and the World Bank.
“Sudan’s national interests were served by continuing on this slow path of reform with international assistance that was finally beginning to arrive in the required amount,” says De Waal.
But with the arrest of the prime minister Abdala Hamdok, an international economist, and other civilian members of the government and transition management bodies, the military have created “serious risks for Sudan,” a report by the International Crisis Group indicates.
The United States did not hesitate to react. Hours after the coup, he announced that he was suspending a $ 700 million economic aid package to support the country’s democratic transition.
On Tuesday, the European Union also warned with suspending financial support if the military does not restore civilian leaders to office.
He followed them this Wednesday the World Bank, which suspended “the disbursements of all its operations in Sudan and stopped processing any new operations while we closely monitor and assess the situation, “said the institution’s president, David Malpass.
Sudan is one of the least developed countries in the world. At the end of 2018, the price of bread tripled and led to protests that ultimately pushed the dictator aside.
In recent times, the country suffered from shortages of medicines and other essential products while inflation was above 300%.
Following the overthrow of Bashir, the Gulf monarchies deposited $ 500 million initials at its central bank as part of a pledged $ 3 billion assistance to maintain its influence in the country.
Even if the coup general Al Burhan gets more financial support from Arab countries, it will not compensate for that offered by international institutions and Western donors.says de Waal.
The coup “potentially leaves Sudan extremely isolated, going back to a period when it was avoided by the rest of the world,” he explains.
Analysts expressed concern that the protests will be brutally suppressed.
De Waal says that this would not only involve a bloodbath in the capital Khartoum, but also the revival of civil wars in the provinces of Darfur and South Kordofan.
The ICG says that Sudanese leaders who authorize the killing of protesters or resist reverting to the transition agreements should face sanctions from the African Union.
The monarchies of the Gulf and Egypt, which forged the closest ties with Burhan and the Sudanese army, should call for containment, the group added.
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