(By Ariel Bargach) One hundred and thirty-seven members of the assembly will have in their hands in the coming days the fate of the president of Ecuador, Guillermo Lasso, at the center of the political trial that is being followed for prolonging a contract supposedly detrimental to the State, a instance that will not only stage the game of internal forces, but will also serve to test the institutional scheme in an unprecedented situation in the last 15 years.
In a session that is estimated to take more than a day, Lasso will have the chance to defend himself against the accusations against him before a National Assembly (AN, Parliament) that, although with a strong dispersion, obtained the votes to go against the recommendations of a commission and move forward in the process.
In any case, the 88 hands that went up to vote for the continuation of the process will not necessarily be in favor of censuring Lasso and removing him from office and, even if they were, the opposition will still have to achieve another 4 wills because they need 92 to to veto the president continuing to lead the Carondelet Palace.
“It is to highlight that, unlike the decade of instability that the country experienced between 1997-2007, with seven presidents in 10 years, now, with the 2008 Constitution, the political class managed to respect the rules of the game and apply the mechanisms constitutional. In addition, the crisis was not resolved by external actors, as happened with the military before,” political scientist Wilson Benavides highlighted to Télam.
Master in Political Science from Flacso, Benavides evaluated that this time “there does not seem to be an institutional risk, so that the political regime is threatened, but if article 129 is applied there will be a succession in the figure of the vice”, Alfredo Borrero, who came to the government with Lasso two years ago.
For this to happen, several steps must be taken: the AN authorities – who had until yesterday to send the assembly members the resolution of last Tuesday’s plenary session – must convene the body tomorrow and include the political trial on the agenda.
After the call, the promoters of the trial must announce the list of the assembly members who will carry out the interpellation on Tuesday, a list that will be communicated to Lasso. The legislators will have two hours for the accusation and the president three to defend himself, and then there will be another hour for replies.
That same day, after Lasso’s retirement, the debate opens and each assembly member will have 10 minutes to present, which leads to predicting that not everything will be resolved in a single day.
Once the debate is over, another session must be called, only to vote, within a period of five days. If the removal is imposed, Borrero must complete the term until 2025.
The accusation against the former banker is for having allowed the maintenance of a million-dollar contract between the state oil transport company, Flopec, and the offshore company Amazonas Tanker Pool.
On Thursday night, Lasso was formally informed of the AN’s decision to go ahead despite a commission’s recommendation to the contrary, which cleared him of any wrongdoing.
The president denies the accusation and assures that the signing of the contract occurred in previous governments, and, even more, that in his management the public company received “unpublished profits” because the technical recommendations of the Comptroller’s Office were met.
Although weeks ago the Executive was analyzing the chance of having the so-called “cross death” -a mechanism that implies dissolving parliament, but calling general elections-, that possibility now seems ruled out and the president has already announced that he will go to the compound to defend himself.
“There seems to be a consensus in the political class not to apply the ‘cross death’, especially taking into account the latest results of the February elections, in which correísmo reemerged with force, with the dignities it achieved in key jurisdictions. Not so much because of the number of votes, but because of the mayoralties and key provinces that it obtained”, expressed Benavides.
“Cross death”, however, cannot be completely ruled out. Lasso should order the dissolution of Congress and his own departure and the Electoral Council call new elections within a maximum period of seven days. The president can run again.
On what mechanisms the Government will look for in the face of risk, Benavides warned that “the strategy was to split the blocks.”
“And he managed to divide at least Pachakutik (12 legislators voted in favor of the trial and 12 were absent) and the Social Christians, because there are four who did not vote. The opposition says that a logic of buying consciences in exchange for votes is being implemented, but there were no complaints, only statements, ”he explained.
Part of the future of the process will also be played tomorrow, when the AN renews its authorities and the integration of the commissions and the Legislative Administration Council (CAL), a key body within Parliament.
The head of the AN, Virgilio Saquicela, has a high chance of continuing in office, with the support of Correísmo and part of the Social Christians, while the ruling party seeks to take Sofía Sánchez to that place.
This is the first time that a president has been subjected to impeachment since the approval of the so-called “Montecristi Constitution” in 2008.
But it is not, on the other hand, the first attempt against Lasso: in June of last year, in the midst of a prolonged general strike promoted by indigenous organizations, a similar initiative added 80 votes, 12 below the minimum required.
“It is the second attempt in just two years. The Government failed to consolidate a similar political majority at first and that is taking its toll. One censorship attempt per year shows mismanagement added to the lack of agreements with parliamentary blocs. (The triumphant) CREO only got 12 seats and its margins for maneuver were reduced,” said Benavides.
Source: Ambito
