(By Camil Straschnoy) The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will seek tomorrow to seal the re-election that allows him to be five more years in power, when in the runoff he faces Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, leader of a coalition of six opposition parties that arrives beaten after reaping in the first round a number of votes less than what the polls predicted.
In the May 14 elections, the current president, from the Justice and Development Party (AKP, for its acronym in Turkish), obtained 49.5% of the votes, followed by the Social Democratic candidate who achieved 44, 9%
In this way, the president was tenths away from obtaining half plus one of the votes that would allow him to secure a new victory, in a result that marked the first time that he had to go to a second round, but that was still much better than expected. predicted by the polls that mostly showed an advantage for the secular Kiliçdaroglu, of the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Strengthened by this better-than-expected performance, last Monday Erdogan received the support of ultranationalist Sinan Ogan, third in the first round with close to 5.2%, seeking to extend the two decades he has been in power, first as prime minister and later as president.
“The chances of the opposition seem very slim,” said Télam Salih Yasun, a specialist in the Middle East and North Africa at the Department of Political Science at Indiana University (United States).
“Kiliçdaroglu and his team completely reversed their message to focus on the refugee issue. However, the other five parties, especially the Good Party (IYI), are almost absent on the ground. This suggests that they have already accepted defeat. “, he added.
Seeking to win the votes he needs, the leader of a coalition that brings together conservatives, progressives, nationalists, leftists and defenders of the Kurdish minority promised these days to expel “all” refugees from the country if he reaches the Executive, a large part of them people who fled from Syria because of the war that broke out in 2011.
With this anti-immigration speech, he managed to receive the support of the ultranationalist Ümit Özdag, leader of the Victory Party, who participated in the first round together with the Ogan Justice Party to reach third place, in an alliance that broke up after the elections.
But this support alone is not enough to stop Erdogan’s 20 years in power, a period in which he advanced with an Islamist approach, the largest religion in a secular country, a conservative style and an autocratic practice, which had its greatest expression in the modification of a parliamentary system to a hyper-presidential one, which gave the leader part of the powers that Congress previously had.
Despite the constant devaluation of the Turkish lira, the increase in prices (annual inflation exceeded 85% in October, the highest in a quarter of a century) and the complaints against the Government for the response to the earthquake that on 6 last February left more than 50,000 dead and an unknown number missing, the president managed to be the candidate with the most votes in the first round.
“He manages to stay afloat by adding small Islamist and nationalist parties to his coalition. In doing so, he has allowed his bases to vote for coalition parties other than the AKP, while maintaining their support for his own candidacy within the presidential race. It is not rare to hear people in Turkey complain about corruption and economic dissatisfaction that they continue to vote for Erdogan as national leader,” Yasun analyzed, also pointing to Kiliçdaroglu’s “missteps.”
“Erdogan was able to maintain his popularity for several reasons, such as the weak alternatives proposed by the opposition and a quick recovery of his reputation after the criticism he received after the earthquake. His current popularity is also a result of voter priorities. The results of The first round is the best example that the social crisis and division, which is based on cultural differences, is stronger than other issues such as economic recovery,” Khalid Al Bostanji, a researcher at the Center for Arab Studies, told this agency. and Islamic from the Australian National University.
It is that the dispute in tomorrow’s ballot is not only about names, but also about models: Erdogan leads an Islamoconservative movement, historically linked to the era of the Ottoman Empire, while Kiliçdaroglu represents a secular vision linked to the origins of his party, created by the father of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.
Already in the elections of May 14, the ruling party maintained control of Congress, although the AKP lost some 20 seats if compared to the previous composition of the legislative body.
“The AKP’s parliamentary majority is not necessarily very significant in the context of the influence it will have on decision-making in the near future in Turkey. This is because Turkey’s political system is no longer dependent on parliament as before,” analyzed Al Bostanji.
“However, the weakness of parliament is significant in itself because it will make systemic change virtually impossible. The AKP majority makes it highly unlikely that the opposition will be able to rally support to abolish the presidential system,” he added, referring to the difficulties facing Kiliçdaroglu would find himself, if he wins tomorrow, to fulfill one of his main promises and return to a parliamentary system through a constitutional change.
Yasun made the same point: “360 of the 500 seats would be needed for a referendum. Since the opposition did not even get a majority, the change to the parliamentary system does not seem likely and Kiliçdaroglu no longer mentions it in his campaign.”
Faced with this scenario, the academic concluded: “If Kiliçdaroglu wins, it will be a weak presidency given Erdogan’s control over Parliament and other state institutions. If Erdogan wins, there will be few checks and balances on his authority, and we can expect him to continue his unorthodox economic policies and his current foreign policy agenda”.
On this last point, the result of the second round is also viewed with interest outside of Turkey due to the specific weight of the country: a member of the G20 and NATO, a mediator between Ukraine and Russia on issues such as the agreement to export the grains blocked by the war, Azerbaijan’s great help in the territorial dispute with Armenia, with military interests in Syria and a gateway or blockade for the commercial and human flow between Asia and Europe.
Source: Ambito
