He dollar closed on Tuesday at 38,739 pesos, according to the official price of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), a decrease of 0.13% compared to the previous day, and which adds to the accumulated depreciation of 0.11% during the month of May.
The interbank dollar has been operating for a month below the 39-peso range. On April 4 it closed at 38,952 pesos, thus breaking a four-day upward climb, where it had gone from 38,616 pesos until it pierced the 39-peso range, settling at 39,074 pesos, between April 27 and May 3.
The US currency, which depreciated 10.65% in 2022, accumulates a negative variation of the order of 3.32% so far this year, staying far from minimum reference values. The The last time it reached 40 pesos was December 26 past.
What was the market projecting for the dollar 6 months ago?
The price of the dollar remains well below the values desired by the agro-export complex of Uruguay, which he estimates should be above 48 pesos, and international projections such as the Big Mac Index from The Economist magazine, which places it at around 52 pesos.
Month by month, so far in 2023, the economic agents consulted by the Bank Central have been moderating their expectations of an accommodation of the price of the US currency. The latest BCU survey on the subject showed that they expect an exchange rate of 41 pesos for December, when last January that value for the calendar year was 42.10 pesos.
The current 38,739 pesos per dollar differ, and a lot, from the projections that the market made six months ago. So, the average price of the dollar expected for May was 40.64 pesos.
Six months earlier, that is to say, in the Survey of Economic Expectations of June 2022, optimism about an appreciation of the US currency was greater: the market estimated that on average it would be in 42.89 pesoswhile the median reached the 43 pesos.
Source: Ambito
