The US currency closed higher again but is still far from the competitive exchange rate demanded by the agricultural export sectors.
He dollar closed Monday’s session with a slight rise of 0.10%, but it is still far from the floor of 39 pesos, which it has not been able to break through for more than a month. What are the chances that a valuation of the US currency will occur in Uruguay?
The stable trend It continues to be predominant in the Uruguayan exchange market, and although it had an increase yesterday, it was only 0.10%, so the price closed at 38,782 pesos, according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). The increase so far in June is marginal: a 0.008%.
This scenario —propelled by the constant variation between downward and rising days, with quite subtle movements— makes the dollar possible to recover its value above 39 pesos —a price that not achieved since May 4that is, more than a month ago, when it managed to position itself at 39,074 pesos— it looks increasingly distant.
Even more so if one considers that, so far this year, the price of the US currency has registered a drop of 3.22% compared to the end of 2022 in 40,071 pesos; and that, year-on-year, the drop is 2.74%.
The recovery of the dollar: a real possibility or a utopia?
The issue of the exchange rate delay was once again an important topic of discussion after the harsh claim of the Rural Association of Uruguay (ARU) for efficient measures in the valuation of the dollar, essential to recover the competitiveness of the country and not continue harming the agro-export sectors.
Given this, the president Luis Lacalle Pou He pointed out that “unfortunately there are times when we cannot affect the price of the dollar”. However, he added that the government is going to “all the effort” to counter this situation. Asked about what this effort would be, he replied: “That without affecting inflation and finances, we can influence and intervene to some extent, with some mechanism, so that the dollar sticks more to 39, 40 pesos“.
This value is far from what the farmers are asking for —who have come to place the ideal dollar at 48 pesos—; but in the current scenario, it seems a feasible and realistic objective, considering that for more than a month the US currency has not been able to position itself above 39 pesos.
In this sense, there are two elements that are already beginning to be timidly analyzed: on the one hand, the impact of improvements in credit ratings by financial agencies Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s which, although they are pushing the weight up, have recently been offset by a rise in the indicators of Risk country. But, on the other hand, the slowdown in inflation and its drop to 7.1% year-on-year.
The latter will be very important when the Council meets again. Monetary Policy Committee (Copom)since inflationary control can generate the margin needed for a further drop in interest rates that promote —or, at least, try— the rise of the dollar in the country. Then, the monetary authorities will have to decide which actors to prioritize: the productive and exporting sectors of the country or the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and their indications from the last annual evaluation.
Source: Ambito
