Achievement in the lower grades is a key factor for later school success

Those who completed secondary level 1 (AHS-Unterstufe/Hauptschule) with a very good assessment had a 16.7 times higher chance of successfully completing secondary level 2 than those with very bad grades. The study examined the influence of educational biographical and personal characteristics of students on the completion of an educational program at secondary level 2 (AHS or BHS Matura, completion of a vocational middle school/BMS). For this purpose, pseudonymised data from two cohorts who entered the 9th grade of a secondary school (AHS-Oberstufe, BHS) or BMS for the first time in the school year 2012/13 or 2013/14 were analyzed in a multivariable way. In total, more than 150 characteristics were used for students, their educational careers, their families, and their classes and schools.

Success depends on many characteristics

First of all: In principle, all groups have a very good chance of successfully completing a secondary level 2 – including those who had an insufficient grade in compulsory subjects in the AHS lower level. However, success depends on many characteristics, such as the personal background of the students. This results from the interaction of factors such as the level of education of the caregivers, family income and migration background.

For demonstration purposes, Statistics Austria reproduced two fictitious educational careers of young males born in Austria. Profile X had a rather unsupportive background (low family income and low level of education of the caregivers who moved to Austria) and came to secondary level 2 via the Hauptschule. If this fictional person attends an AHS in the ninth grade, the probability of success is around 73 percent, with a technical BHS it is 81 percent and with a technical BMS 90 percent. If profile X had a very good assessment in secondary level I, the probability of success for a qualification in secondary level 2 is around 86 percent, with a bad assessment it is only 54 percent.

For comparison, the statisticians formed a second fictitious male youth born in Austria. This (Profile Z), on the other hand, had a very supportive personal background and came to secondary school via an AHS lower level. Keeping all other characteristics the same, his probability of success increases to almost 95 percent when attending an AHS in the ninth grade, with one technical BHS also to 95 percent and with a technical BHS to almost 97 percent. If profile X had a very good assessment in secondary level 1 (also with all other characteristics remaining the same), his probability of success for completing secondary level 2 is more than 97 percent and even with bad grades it is 88 percent.