He dollar is going through a critical moment Uruguay after its tenth consecutive day down and a price that closed at 37,912 pesos yesterday, and is increasingly moving away from the estimates made by the different economic actors on what should be the value of the US currency without the current exchange rate lag.
The dollar continues to fall and the alarms of the various export sectors do not stop ringing in the face of what appears to be an ever deeper exchange rate lag. In this sense, yesterday’s trading closed 0.05% below Tuesday’s, marking ten consecutive declines and a accumulated of more than -2.23% in June.
On this scenario, the analysis of what the currency price should be for achieve a competitive exchange rate They differ, but they have one point in common: the dollar in Uruguay is visibly behind.
The exporting sectors demand a better exchange rate
He agro-export sector He has been one of the main spokesmen for the demand for a more competitive exchange rate, directly affected by the weakening of the dollar and its impact on prices and profitability in their business in the international market. In this sense, they often indicate the value that the US currency should have, a goal that the government should aspire to achieve.
In this regard, according to the latest calculations of the Rural Association of Uruguay (ARU)the dollar should appreciate between 15% and 30% to trade at levels that oscillate between 44 and 50 pesos. According to the economist from the area of agroeconomic studies of the entity, Rocio Lapitz, the real change of equilibrium of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) places the currency 15% above its current value; while, taking the historical average of the last 40 years, the imbalance reaches 30%.
The rural federationFor his part, he calculates that an appropriate dollar would be around 40 pesos. while the Chamber of Industries of Uruguay (CUI) He points out that they are aiming for a dollar that starts at 45 pesos to recover the lost profitability in the sector.
The figures handled by the State
The exchange rate delay is also a phenomenon recognized by the BCU, which has published different figures over the last few months. In this sense, in the last report of the Monetary Policy Commission (Copom) He pointed out that the misalignment of the fundamentals was around 9 or 10%.
The president of the entity, Diego Labat, maintained in February that the delay was 8 or 9%; while in December of last year he had confirmed to the ARU that the misalignment reached 12%. The truth is that, currently, the price of the dollar is below its price in May and even at the end of 2022. Therefore, if the most recent estimates are taken —without considering the significant drop in recent days— the currency US should be worth between 40.94 and 42.46 pesos, at least.
For its part, within the government there are discrepancies on how to refer to a situation that is clearly evident: while for the minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries (MGAP), Fernando Mattos, there is an exchange rate delay that is worrying; for your pair of Industry, Energy and Mining (MIEM), Omar Paganini“technically there is no exchange rate delay”.
More alarming views on the exchange rate lag
The analyzes of Center for the Study of Economic and Social Reality (Ceres) are even more worrisome than those of the BCU and more aligned with the export sectors, since they point to an exchange rate delay of 25% and describe it as a “persistent, problematic phenomenon” that is significant in Uruguay, despite the fact that “the dollar It has a decreasing trend around the world.”
In this sense, according to the director of Ceres, Ignacio Munyo, the dollar should trade around 47.39 pesosalmost 10 pesos above the value with which it closed the day yesterday.
On the other hand, and according to the Big Mac Index produced by the british magazine The Economist, The dollar in Uruguay should have a price of at least 50 pesos. This diagnosis is all the more alarming considering that the most recent study dates from December 2022, so compared to the rest of the world, the country already had an extremely appreciated currency back then, when the real exchange rate was of 39.13 pesos. Today, with a dollar retreat of more than 5.38% So far this year, the exchange rate lag has become even more pronounced.
Source: Ambito
