It represents a decrease of 0.7% compared to what analysts consulted by the Central Bank projected last month.
After the drop in annual inflation up to June, when it stood at below 6%, the analysts consulted monthly by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) marked a substantial decline in their projections for inflation this year.
Indeed, according to the Monthly Survey of Expectations published by the BCU, the response median points out that inflation would be this year of 6.25%, a fall from 0.7% compared to what was projected last month. For next year, however, analysts estimate somewhat higher inflation: 6.6%; this differs from what was officially proposed (both from the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank), since they project that inflation it would continue to decline in 2024.
As regards the price of the dollar, the projection for the end of this year registers a new descent, although modest, estimating that the dollar would close 2023 in 39.7 pesos according to the median of the responses. If this projection is confirmed, the dollar will rise this year just 1.6%, almost five points below inflation.
Downward adjustment for growth projections
On the other hand, the analysts consulted by the Central Bank once again adjusted down projection of economic growth for this year, estimating that GDP would rise just 1% according to the median of the responses.
There the impact of the drought is clearly reflected, which no longer only had an effect on the agricultural and energy production, but in the functioning of the services at the level of the metropolitan area, with the crisis which was unleashed by lack of water in the Santa Lucia Basin.
For next year, economists estimate a growth of the 3%. The figure is higher than the estimate for this year, but lower than the official projection, which is from 3.7%
Source: Ambito
