This emerges from the Survey of Economic Expectations, where a growth of the economy of barely 1% this year was projected.
The effects of drought represented a decline of nearly two points in GDP, according to the interpretation of the analysts consulted in the Survey of Economic Expectations of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), that in their growth projections for the economy they anticipated a growth of 1% for this year, while they considered that it could grow up to 3% in 2024.
The analysts consulted by the BCU projected a growth of barely 1% for GDP this year, based on the median of the EES responses. If compared to 3% in 2024 and the 2.5% Expected for 2025, it can be deduced that they hope that, once the crisis scenario caused by the prolonged drought is over, the economy will get back on track.
It is that the impact of the climatic phenomenon was not only felt in the agricultural and energy production, but also in the functioning of the services of the metropolitan area, as a result of the water crisis that exploded and complicated the panorama in Montevideo and surroundings.
On this situation, the economist aldo motto I consider that “drought took away almost 2 points of growth to the GDP of Uruguay 2022-2023”. For the specialist, it is something that “will probably recover if the rainfall continues to normalize, becoming explicit above all in the figure for 2024”, which reaches 3%.
An average GDP growth of 2.8% is expected in the next 10 years
Regarding the Uruguayan economy, which improved 0.9% in the first quarter, its potential growth is estimated at 2.8% for the period between 2023 and 2032, according to the report of the Expert Committee (EC) of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF)which thus reflected a rise of 0.7% compared to the previous forecast.
In that report, the experts evaluated an average improvement range of between 2.1% and 3.9%, according to the individual estimation of each of the variables.
He executive secretary of the Fiscal Advisory Council, Ignacio Umpiérrez, He maintained at that time that the tool “in addition to serving as an input for the fiscal rule, constitutes a greater boost to the treatment and discussion of issues related to the Uruguay’s long-term growth and its ultimate determinants”, after which he asked that it be “a practice that is consolidated over time”.
Source: Ambito
