The US currency closed a week with ups and downs at $37,963, quite far from what analysts estimate for the end of the year.
He dollar had a week with ups and downs, where the US currency returned to trade for below the 38 pesos range and closed on Friday at 37,963 pesos, diminishing the appreciation that had been showing this month and remaining far of what he expects private sector At the end of the year.
In this way, the interbank accumulates an improvement of more than 1.48% so far in July and represents progress after a black June, where he had the biggest drop in 16 months. However the exchange rate delay remains and must be corrected almost 5.37% by the end of 2023, according to analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
It is that the dollar ended a week of oscillations with a rise of 0.14%, which placed it at levels similar to those of the 5th of this month, also below 38 pesos. If its value is compared with respect to the end of 2022, the depreciation reaches more than 5.26%.
According to the last Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) of the BCU, the specialists consulted expect the currency to close the month in 38.25 pesos, with which it should be appreciated 0.75% However, the 18 responses were very different, with analysts estimating that it will remain in 37.95 pesos and others who argued that it can end in 38.70 pesos.
When comparing with the closing of the year, the expectations of the specialists are located in 40 pesos, something that today seems quite distant, since it implies a correction of almost 5.37%. Among the 19 responses, the least optimistic forecast a dollar to 38.50 pesos, while the most optimistic valued it at 42 pesos.
The influence of international factors and own issues
In this way, the exchange rate delay, which some specialists estimate in the order of 25%, still far from being corrected. In this situation, the international scenario has its influence, since the dollar has been falling in Latin America and emerging currencies appreciate. “It is difficult for me to go to Uruguay against the tide of what is happening”, admitted days ago to Ámbito.com the researcher at the Center for Development Studies (CED), Deborah Eilender.
Between the internal factors, the specialist assessed the reduction of 50 basis points of interest rate arranged by the BCU, although he considered that “sometimes its impact on the exchange rate is overstated”.
Eilender indicated that for the appreciation of the peso issues such as “the direct investment, which is at all-time highs”, as well as the service exports and fiscal consolidation, embodied in an improvement in the credit rating by the main risk rating agencies.
Source: Ambito
