Analysts consulted by the Central Bank marked a sharp reduction in their forecasts, from the 6.25% they forecast in July.
The expectations of inflation of the analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) continue to decline, in line with the data from inflation that is being released month by month, and also in line with the projections of the BCU, who estimates that the inflation will remain within the Target Range for the next 24 months.
According to the Central Bank Expectations Survey, released today, the median projection of inflation of analysts fell from 6.25% to 5.40% for this year. For next year it is expected that the inflation rise to 6.50% projection slightly lower than the one proposed the previous month, and -in this case- half a point above the target range.
Let us remember that the BCU Monetary Policy Committee defined this week to lower the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 10%, maintaining the contractionary bias of monetary policy, but also acknowledging the drop in retail inflation that has occurred in recent months.
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Economic Expectations: what is expected of the dollar and the GDP?
Expectations about the performance of the economy have not changed. The Survey of Economic Expectations, disclosed today, maintains a median projection for the variation of the GDP of 1% for this year and 3% for next year, in which the economy would resume its growth rate to the extent that the drought.
Regarding the exchange rate, the median projection for the price of the dollar in the average for the next month of December fell from 40.0 to 39.8 pesos. If this forecast by analysts is confirmed, the dollar It would have a nominal rise of 1.8% this year, continuing with the decline in its real value, which has been registered since 2020, finding the US currency below 38 pesos after the close of this day.
Source: Ambito
