In 2023 it will be the second time in 20 years that the GDP grows and the perception of the DGI falls, according to CED estimates.
The consumption diversion effect that it causes in Uruguay the exchange difference with Argentina will exceed 1,000 million dollars, according to the estimations of the Center for Development Studies (CED), that in his analysis of the situation he warned about the impact of this phenomenon on tax collection DGI.
The impact of the growing price gap between both countries began to shake different sectors and in recent days complaints from supermarkets, pharmacies and even restaurants have arrived. At the same time, on the coast it led to high unemployment figures.
In his macroeconomic bulletin, the CED specified that the cost of uruguayans in Argentina reached 596 million dollars if only the first semester is counted, just 63 million dollars below what was observed in all of 2022. Therefore, in a conservative assumption that this figure remains constant compared to the previous year, spending It will be greater than 1,000 million dollars, which represents 50% more than pre-pandemic levels.
The other side of consumption deviation is what the DGI will stop collecting, beyond what the cyclical slowdown observed since mid-2022 would suggest, pointed out the CED. And in his study he anticipated that in 2023 it will be the second time in twenty years that the GDP grows and the real income of the DGI go down, something that also happened in 2019.
The vision was shared by the economist Ignacio Umpierrez, who added that “in fiscal terms, it is also better to be pessimistic than optimistic regarding Argentina”.
The impact on collection had already been noticed by Arbeleche
Uruguayan purchases in Argentina represent a phenomenon that had already been observed by the government, in a context of falling collection, which reached a real year-on-year drop of 2.2% in June, something that they mainly attribute to the decrease in the perception of VAT, which was down 2% year-on-year. In fact, the Minister of Economy and Finance, Azucena Arbeleche, admitted that this situation “harms the growth and tax collection of Uruguay”.
It was during an interview with Bloomberg, where arbeleche recognized that “the projections of consumption and fiscal collection of the budget incorporate consumer spending in Argentina”. Even from the consultant lush they estimate that purchases in the neighboring country will take half of the consumption expenditure of Uruguayans, estimated at 3%.
Source: Ambito
