It was 6.8% in September, something that had not happened since 2005, according to an Exante analysis based on official data.
The non-tradable inflation was 6.8% in September and was at its lowest level in the last 18 years, similar to the levels of 2004 and 2005, according to an analysis by the consulting firm Exante based on data from the latest CPI prepared by the INE, which showed inflation of 4.1%.
In this way, the inflation of the economy’s non-tradable prices fell sharply from the value of around 9% they reached last year. Thus, they are close to the target range of between 3 and 6 percent, where the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) expects retail inflation to continue.
From lush They highlighted through their X account (formerly Twitter) that in the measurement “lower pressures are observed at the level of the non-tradable component”.
Specifically, the consultant remarked that “in the long history”, the country only had similar or lower levels of inflation not tradable twice. One of them was “the disinflation of 2004-2005 (after the push generated by the devaluation of 2002-2003)” and the rest occurred “in the recessive period of the late 1990s and early 2000s,” they analyzed the experts.
Non-Tradable Inflation.jpg
The decline in inflation, close to aligning with expectations
In parallel, the expectations of inflation of the analysts who periodically consult the BCU are in the order of 6.32%, while those of the market are at 6.18%, which speaks of the fact that it is expected that the CPI continue near the center of the target range, as it has been for two months.
In fact, in his Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) for the second quarter, the central bank He analyzed that inflation will remain below 6% on the horizon, which implies at least the next two years. In tune, the president of the BCU, Diego Labat, he was enthusiastic about the CPI converging towards the center of the target range in those 24 months.
Source: Ambito
