The projections of the private sector were reduced by 50 basis points, according to the survey carried out every month by the INE.
Businessmen’s inflation expectations fell and stood at 7.5% for 2023.
Photo: Freepik
The inflation expectations of entrepreneurs fell 0.5% compared to the last measurement and were around 7.5% for this year, in what was the first decrease in this indicator in the last four months.
In this way, the Business Expectations Survey (EEE) prepared every month by the INE showed that the decrease in projections still does not completely accompany the level of inflation retail that stood this month at 4.1%, its lowest level in the last 18 years.
Thus, the median of inflation What the private sector expects for 2023 is 7.5%, 0.5% compared to last month, although still far from the government’s target range, which expects the CPI remains close to the 5% average over the next 24 months.
Precisely, thinking about the following months, businessmen foresee a inflation 7.5% for the moving year closed in July 2024, while, when making its forecasts for the period from August 2024 to July 2025, that figure was not modified and remained at 8%.
On the other hand, the EEE demonstrated a decrease in the expected variation of the costs company operations. Although the median remained at 8% for this year, as in the last measurement, the expectation for the moving year closed to 2024 and the moving year closed to 2025 aligned at 8%, a decline of 0.5 % and 0.6% compared to the July data.
Expectations remain misaligned with current inflation
From the survey of INE It emerges that the businessmen’s forecasts continue to be far from the sustained decline in inflation, which, in addition to the decrease in the CPI and its level close to the center of the target range, also finds its lowest level since 2005 in non-tradable prices.
This discrepancy is important and was revealed by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), that in a bulletin on the evolution of prices considered that the inflation what economic agents expect “is decisive for the behavior of prices in the medium and long term”.
Source: Ambito
