With yesterday’s significant increase, the dollar reached the range of 38 pesos and accumulated a positive variation of 1.14% in the month. Can it be maintained?
He dollar in Uruguay It returned to the long-awaited range of 38 pesos after 23 days, and its behavior during September begins to excite, mostly, the export sectors, in an international context of strengthening of the US currency.
Just five exchange days—four of them upward and only one with a minimal negative variation of 0.02%—were enough for September to return to the dollar to the range of 38 pesos, from which it had fallen on August 15 after a fleeting stay of two consecutive days. At the close of trading yesterday, the US currency managed to settle at 38,007 pesos, according to the official price of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) after a 0.40% increase compared to Wednesday.
The outlook is positive: so far this month, the dollar already accumulates a positive balance of 1.14%, when August left a variation of 0.44% —and became the largest monthly increase since February. However, for the year the decline is still 5.12%, while year-on-year it is 6.77%.
Although it is still early to talk about a bullish trend, The existence of the streak can be observed in the considerable dollar appreciation in the last days. Analysts, for their part, still recommend not expecting major changes, since the peso will not devalue abruptly.
A positive global scenario
Meanwhile, the dollar At a global level it sends positive signals to the exchange rate in Uruguay: Just as its weakening for much of the year explained the exchange rate delay – or, at least, a part of it – in the country, its strengthening in recent weeks can push the local price to figures closer to the expectations of the market and export sectors.
With the various announcements of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) about the need to continue restrictive monetary policy —and, therefore, with the rise in reference interest rates—, the dollar recovered some of the lost ground; added to the increase in the oil pricethe compass appears to be aligning itself toward north again.
The international signs of appreciation are several: on the one hand, the Bloomberg Dollar Index (DXY) that compares the dollar with a basket of currencies of advanced countries accumulates several weeks of increases, which would indicate some strengthening of the US currency. About this, the meager growth in other advanced economies -as China and the European Union- It also provides support to a strong dollar. On the other hand, the outlook is bearish for emerging currencies.
This scenario can generate a positive context for the appreciation of the dollar in the country that, with the arrival of September, seems to be going through an early spring.
Source: Ambito
