After the ups and downs of the week and the maximum in six months that the currency reached internationally, the price in the exchange market promises new increases.
He dollar in Uruguay It seems to echo what is happening internationally with the US currency, and it rebounds considerably after several days of ups and downs that argued for a rather stable or “ironed” trend in the local price.
On Wednesday, the global dollar hit its highest in six and a half months after the announcement of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) that, for the moment, the restrictive monetary policy will be maintained in the country, with the objective of continuing to work on controlling inflation. Yesterday, the effect seems to have reached Uruguayan lands: the dollar went up a 0.40% and closed at 38,205 pesos, according to the price of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
In an early analysis – since what happens in a single day is far from being decisive, especially in the local market, marked in recent times by the constant and consecutive rises and falls in the value of the US currency – the dollar It is behaving as some analysts predict: in tune with the upward trend at the international level.
Although there is still a long way to go, the monthly improvement of the dollar In September it is already 1.63%, although the accumulated decline in the year is 4.66%, while at a year-on-year level, the drop reaches 6%.
What can happen in the next few days?
If he dollar local currency continues the same path as the global currency, it is possible to expect a appreciation —moderate, as the peso continues to be a strong currency and its abrupt depreciation is not likely—visible, but in the short term, at least in the medium term, that allows its price to be brought closer to a value closer to that of market expectations—above 39 pesos.
Although the price is still much lower than what some export sectors expect – from which they point out a exchange delay of around 15%—, an improvement of the dollar It can also mean an improvement in the competitiveness from the country. However, almost no one expects that, in the remainder of the year, the decline that the US currency has accumulated can be recovered.
Likewise, one may wonder what will happen in terms of inflation locally if the dollar begins a considerable climb, at least in comparative terms. In this sense, analysts interpret that a quote that exceeds 38.50 is incompatible with an inflation index within the target range provided by the government, so a decision by the authorities on what to prioritize during the last quarter of the year would also be at stake.
Source: Ambito
