Slovakia before the election: How reliable would Fico be as an ally?

“We are a peaceful country. We will not send a single cartridge to Ukraine.” That was Robert Fico’s blunt message to around 300 supporters at a political rally last week in the western Slovakian town of Banovce nad Bebravou. The former populist prime minister is considered the favorite in the early parliamentary elections on September 30th.

If he makes good on his promise, it would mean a turning point for Slovakia, which has been a loyal ally of Ukraine in its fight against the Russian war of aggression. Bratislava has supplied weapons to Kiev and provided strong political support within the European Union and NATO. “They will have to sit down and find an agreement anyway,” Fico said of the conflict participants. “Russia will never leave Crimea, never the territories it controls.”

However, Fico’s victory is not guaranteed. His socially conservative Smer-SD party is in the latest polls with 20.3 percent, not too far ahead of the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) with 17.2 percent. A lot depends on how the smaller parties perform. Forming a coalition government could prove difficult. Western diplomats also say that a small country like Slovakia cannot overturn the policies of the EU and NATO. But Fico has caused a stir in Brussels and beyond by criticizing sanctions against Russia, calling for a rapprochement with Moscow once the war ends and promising to veto Ukraine’s NATO membership if that possibility ever arises result. He could also ally himself with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has close ties with Russia, diplomats suspect. Ukrainian officials express concern about the prospect of an Orban coalition within the EU, but point out that Hungary typically does not step out of line when making important decisions and therefore expect limited foreign policy impact if Fico wins.

Resigned in 2018

Fico, who was forced to resign in 2018 after the murder of an investigative journalist sparked mass protests, has become radicalized in the opposition, insiders say. Meanwhile, disinformation has spread that has eroded public support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022, according to Katarína Klingová of the think tank Globsec. Slovakia, she added, has long been fertile ground for pro-Russian narratives, thanks to its historical affinity and low trust in public institutions. “If you turn on the television now, in almost every debate you will see a political representative using disinformation narratives,” Klingová said. “They don’t necessarily have to support the Kremlin… but they definitely play into Russia’s hands.” A Globsec poll from earlier this year found that only 40 percent of Slovaks blame Russia for the invasion of Ukraine – the lowest figure in all of Central and Eastern Europe.

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