He dollar in Uruguay In September he achieved his biggest monthly increase in more than a yearand is excited to have left behind a mostly stable trend – which maintained its “ironed” price -, driven by a favorable international context and a local situation not as positive as 2022. However, the competitiveness This good performance of the US currency has not yet been impacted.
Despite a last day that shook the markets with a drop of 0.49% – the largest daily decline of the entire month – as if to remind us that exchange rate volatility is not something that should not be taken into account, he dollar It was a September that brought some relief to the export sectors and even to all Uruguayans who saw their purchasing power increase.
The thing is that, from “end to end”—that is, from the first to the last day of the month—the value of the currency increased by 2.56% in September. In August, the increase had been 0.44%, and had already been received with enthusiasm for having been the best month since February. With September’s performance, a much more important appreciation was achieved – which managed to consolidate the price of dollar in the 38 peso range— which, furthermore, had not been achieved for more than a year, when in July 2022 The total monthly increase was 2.69%.
Little by little, the Change of trend seems to be more and more a reality.
The dollar through the month
Although the general trend of the month was upward, something that was mainly seen in the four consecutive days of increase during the last week – broken by the decrease of the last day -, the dollar It moved with quite a few ups and downs in its value. In any case, of the 21 days in which there was a quote, only seven closed down, while in the other 14 he managed to climb.
The greater movements They were concentrated between Thursday and Friday of the last week: while Thursday the 28th had the largest daily increase with an increase of 0.79% compared to the previous day — the largest increase since July; On Friday the 29th it fell 0.49% and was the sharpest daily drop. Likewise, the week ended with a positive balance of 1.16% and marked the second consecutive week on the rise.
With this good performance and a average value of 38,146 pesos in September —an increase of 0.78% compared to the August average, the largest in a year—so far in 2023, the dollar falls 3.78%, while the year-on-year decline is 7.62%.
Despite everything, competitiveness does not improve
Despite a great month for the dollar, the external competitiveness of Uruguayan products measured in dollars fell 2.65%according to him Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). This is mainly due to the fact that the published data corresponds to August, so the impact of the increase in the US currency in September may be known next month.
The decline in competitiveness, however, is currently worrying, as is the decline in Real Exchange Rate Index (RER)which collapsed a 7.53% year-on-yearmarking 19 consecutive months of decline.
The fall in the RER in August compared to July, which leads to an increase in the prices of Uruguayan goods measured in Dollars in relation to that of its main commercial partners, is explained by a loss of competitiveness both against regional and extra-regional countries.
In front of the extra-regional partners, In the monthly comparison, competitiveness fell 0.64%, which is the seventh consecutive decline. In year-on-year terms, the extra-regional competitiveness indicator fell 9.64%, for the 21st consecutive month.
Regarding the partners in the region, the RER fell 5.03% in August compared to July (due to a decrease against Argentina of 8.11% and against Brazil of 2.18%). On a year-on-year basis, the decrease was 4.9% (it fell 8.77% against Argentina and 1.31% against Brazil).
Source: Ambito
