Not counting Argentina and Brazil, it is 26% below the historical average, according to a report from the Catholic University of Uruguay.
He real exchange rate (TCR) extra regional, that is, compared to the rest of the world without counting Argentina and Brazil, is 26% below the historical average and, despite a positive September, it is thus at its lowest level in the last 23 years, according to a report from the Catholic University of Uruguay (UCU).
On the other hand, if we analyze the exchange difference with Argentina, the RER is 14% below when compared to the official dollar and 58% if compared to the Dolar blue. Meanwhile, with Brazil It is 36% below.
According to the UCU report, the extra-regional TCR is at minimum levels so far this century, although similar to those of the first months of 2013 and 2017, moments in which recovery processes began.
In turn, he highlighted that the deterioration was considerable since the beginning of 2022. In that sense, he compared that, with the average of the extra region, the RER in September was 23% below the level of December 2021, 16% below in in case of USA and Europe, reaching 32% in the bilateral relationship with China.
The global dollar and monetary policy
The survey highlighted that during this process, factors were recorded that strengthened and weakened the dollar at a global level, but compared that “in both cases it maintained weakness in our country” and graphed: “When there are reasons for the dollar go down, go down; and when there are reasons for it to go up, it also goes down.”
In the same sense, he highlighted that the behavior of the RER was linked to the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), which he described as “extremely contractionary to the point where inflation is below what the economic team expected.”
When analyzing the economy’s numbers, he maintained that “this behavior opposes the expansive nature that fiscal and salary policies have been showing,” alluding to the fiscal deterioration and the recovery of real wages.
According to the text of the UCU, “These expansive behaviors, particularly those related to salaries, are what keep expectations above the target range in the 24-month horizon of monetary policy,” which is why he considered that an improvement in the situation is not expected. competitiveness in the future.
Source: Ambito
