The prospects for exports of Uruguay are not positive for Exporters Unionat least until 2025, in a context marked by a new drop in placements at a monthly levela decline of 18% year-on-year and the loss of competitiveness as a result of the exchange rate delay that further harms income from sales of Uruguayan products.
Although 2022 was an exceptional year – especially the first part -, something recognized by all sectors, it left the bar too high for 2023, and this can be seen in the month-by-month records of the export performance, which follows a downward curve. In that sense, exports fell more than 9% in September compared to the same month in 2022, and have a accumulated leave of more than one year.
This, of course, does not go unnoticed by the Union of Exporters, who demand that the government establish new trade agreements that lead to a tariff reduction and the opening new markets to expand the possibilities of a sector also hit by the drought and its effects still resonant.
“It is the 13th month of decline in exports, although it is no longer as strong in the comparison of September 2023 against September 2022, because last year in the second semester the exports They were already coming slower. But we have accumulated practically a 20% drop in exports so far this year,” the president of the Union of Exporters told Telemundo. Facundo Marquez.
In that sense, Márquez pointed out that the “concern” is because “in the world, in the main plaintiffs there is a certain lag or complications that do not end up improving” as, for example, is the case of China, whose meat prices are not rising and their imports from the Uruguayan market are trending downward.
Given this scenario, the international prospects are not good, according to the export leader. “The future in what we are foreseeing and a little in what we talk about with economists is not very encouraging. The world is quite slow, No growth is expected between now and 2025. We intend for the dynamic to be maintained, beyond some prices that may drop to reasonable values, but for the sales dynamic to be maintained; and, of course, improve internal conditions,” he added.
At the local level, Márquez insisted, the key that can make the difference will be in the government’s policies, both in monetary matter as in foreign relations, with the aim of reaching new markets and negotiating better tariff conditions with current business partners.
The dairy sector, between a rock and a hard place
He milk sector of Uruguay is going through a difficult moment that, it seems, could become even more complicated with the upcoming scenario: the tax modifications in Brazil —with the aim of stopping milk imports from the countries of the Mercosur and encourage the local sector—, added to the fact that placements in this area in China They cannot recover, and in August fell 11% year-on-year.
Exports have been falling on a general level – September was no exception -, particularly with China, whose prices do not rise even after a certain economic reactivation following the impact suffered by health policies around Covid-19. This is also observed in terms of milk exports from Uruguay to the Asian country, which were 246,922 tons in August compared to 276,912 tons in the same month in 2022, as reported by Blasina y Asociados.
This represents a drop of 11% in terms of volume placed. Considering the value of the products, the drop was 20%.
The outlook for 2023, in general, is not very encouraging either. So far this year, the drop in volume of dairy placements in china is from 9.4%.
Source: Ambito
