The CPI continues at 18-year lows and at the bottom of the target range, despite the 0.61% increase seen last month.
The inflation annual decline again and stood at 3.87% during September, reaching its lowest level since 2005, although if the variation between last month and August is taken, there was an increase of 0.61% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), according to the data of the INE.
In this way, the inflation continues for the fourth consecutive month within the target range established by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) and approaching the bottom. Meanwhile, the increase at a monthly level is mainly explained by the rise in fuels and the end of the discount Imesi in bottled water, a consequence of the end of water emergency.
When analyzing the increase in CPI, It is worth noting that the expenses of Transport became more expensive by 1.27%, as a result of increases in the price of gasoil (5.94%), the naphtha (4.55%) and interdepartmental and suburban transportation (4.68%).
Regarding food, the biggest updates occurred in fruits and nuts, especially orange (4.79%) and apples (2.96%), but also in vegetables, tubers and legumes (2.61%), with a strong increase in bell peppers (35.08%), tomatoes (6, 93%), potatoes (9.11%) and sweet potatoes (9.83%).
Finally, it is worth highlighting that the non-alcoholic beverages had an increase of 6.56%, something that was frankly driven by the 33.15% increase in the price of water, a consequence of the end of the exoneration of the Imesi for bottled water.
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What can happen with inflation in the coming months?
He INE also reported that there was a new increase in the inflation underlying, which excludes fuel, fresh fruits and vegetables. He CPI-CE It increased 0.38% and added its second consecutive increase, maintaining an upward trend so far this year.
However, in the CPI In general, a new reduction was detected in the non-tradable component, which remained at 6.7%, as well as in the trend, in the order of 4.3%, according to the economist’s data. Nicolás Cichevski.
Comparing all the data, from the consulting firm Exante They anticipated that there may be “a certain rebound in inflation in the coming months”, although they clarified that the CPI will end up “closing the year within the target range”, something that for the BCU It’s a priority.
In fact, the president of the Central Bank, Diego Labat, anticipated that forecasting is not only that inflation remains between 3 and 6%, but is close to 5% over the next 24 months.
Source: Ambito
