The four consecutive increases that the dollar In recent days they reopened the debate on the profitability of Indexed Units (UI) and instruments in pesos.
Last Monday, the greenback rose 0.43% to open higher in October. This increase was followed by a 1.11% increase on Tuesday; 0.63% on Wednesday; and 0.02% today.
For his part, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) It fell again year-on-year in September and stood at 3.87%, reaching its lowest level since 2005.
Performance comparison
Since the last business day of last year, December 30, when the dollar was trading at 40.071 pesos, the exchange rate price accumulated a decline of 1.68% after closing at 39.397 pesos today. Therefore, those who bought dollars as a hedge before the end of the year have lost some capital during 2023.
As an example, if a person bought 2,000 dollars at 40,071 pesos thinking of the North American currency as a reserve of value, they went from having 80,142 pesos to having 78,794 pesos, a difference of 1,348 pesos, which today would buy another 34 dollars.
Those who, on the other hand, on that same date acquired their equivalent in UI (14,304 UI) at 5.6028 pesos had a variation of 3.25% taking into account today’s price at 5.785 pesos. These savers not only protected their capital, but have generated a profit of 2,606 pesos to date.
Future prospects
Here the outlook is uncertain, if it continues with its bullish rally, the dollar could quickly reverse its performance against inflation-indexed financial instruments.
However, the greenback is likely to hit its ceiling at 40 pesos in the coming days, taking into account that the current price behavior could be due to a small upward correction after a few months of sustained decline.
The Uruguayan site specialized in personal finances, Sherpa Staffassured that “in this situation, certain rotation between assets in nominal weights or UI and dollars makes sense”, but that assets in nominal pesos or UI continue to be a good option for those who want to guarantee a certain level of consumption, without seeking financial speculation.
At the same time, it is noted that “in the end, rate arbitrage should operate,” since if an investment in dollars increasingly pays more, one in nominal pesos “should follow the trend.”
Source: Ambito
