October continues to be a positive month for the US currency, which has accumulated an appreciation of 3.59% so far this month.
He dollar in Uruguay continues to achieve achievements that it could not repeat for months and even years, in an October that promises, at least, to recover all of the value lost by the US currency in 2023. On this occasion, and at the close of the trading day yesterday, reached four consecutive positive weekssomething that has not happened since December 2021.
Despite having closed with a slight decrease of 0.03% compared to Thursday, the dollar accumulated a positive variation of 0.87% from end to end in the second week of October; the fourth consecutive to achieve advances in its price when reaching Friday. The currency was quoted at 39.94 pesos, according to data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU)and it still cannot break another close record: reaching the 40 peso range, in which it has not operated since the end of last year.
In any case, the month has been extremely positive for the dollar, accumulating a appreciation of 3.59% so far in October—barely 10 exchange days—and shaping up to what could be its biggest monthly rise throughout 2023, so far. Although this year it still registers a drop of 0.33%, if the bullish rally it has been maintaining continues, it is possible that it will be able to recover the lost value.
International factors can change the course
Despite the generally good news regarding the levels of the dollar, Both the market and investors await what will happen in USA, where the inflation remained stable and we wait for the behavior of the Federal Reserve (Fed) with respect to the interest rates.
In this sense, the hypothesis that the US central bank will not finally carry out a new increase before the end of the year impacts the local scenario in two ways: on the one hand, it fuels the possibility of a new cut in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by the BCU —which would continue to make the peso less interesting in terms of profitability, making investors more inclined towards the dollar-; but, at the same time, the exchange rate in the country will be directly linked to what happens with the global dollar, which could be less favored by the limitation of interest.
At the same time, we will have to see what the government will do regarding the dollar, while it needs to maintain a not so high price so that the inflation stay within the target range.
In any case, it is worth remembering that the analysts consulted by the BCU They cut the projection of the dollar for the end of the year and they expected it to end at 39.40 pesos, a level lower than where it operates today.
Source: Ambito
