The currency fell for the second consecutive day and still does not reach the values of 2022, although it remains above market projections.
He dollar in Uruguay It fails to reach the 40 peso range despite having been very close to trading at those values after closing four consecutive weeks higher for the first time since 2021. Has the correction of the exchange delay to your roof?
Although the expectations of the local market still gave rise to a greater increase in the price of dollar, The US currency closed its second consecutive day lower yesterday, trading at 39,894 pesos, according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
He 0.12% decline It also meant that the currency moved further away from 40 pesos. October, meanwhile, still maintains a considerable positive variation, accumulating a appreciation of 3.47%but the behavior of the last few days implied, at least, a pause in the correction of the exchange delay, which so far this year remains at 0.44%, while in the year-on-year comparison it is 3.19%.
Will the dollar resume the bullish rally?
The truth is that, despite the two days of decline, the dollar It is still above market projections which, by the end of the year – and after a downward adjustment of expectations – estimate a ticket at 39.40 pesos.
These forecasts coincide with the analyzes that, on the one hand, explain the bullish rally of the US currency in the local scenario as a “rebound” of the significant fall it suffered during the year – but not an upward trend, strictly speaking; and, on the other, with the idea of a price in accordance with the inflation goals and the need to maintain the indicators within the target range, as has been happening. In this sense, a more expensive dollar would inevitably be passed on to prices, so it is possible that the ceiling on appreciation may not be too far away—if it has not yet arrived.
At the international level, meanwhile, it is likely that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) do not raise interest and reference rates again in the remainder of the year, so the currency could have a slowdown in the appreciation experienced in recent weeks which, in turn, boosted the dollar in local markets. In any case, we will have to see the impact that the war has between Israel and Hamas In this sense, both due to the increase in the oil price as by the behavior of investors who see in the dollar a historical haven of value in times of uncertainty.
Source: Ambito
