Analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay estimated that it will remain around 5.20% annually this month.
He Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) reported that the inflation expectations of the market, although they remain within the target range, according to the analysts consulted by the entity, within the framework of its monthly report.
According to the Expectations Survey of the BCU, Despite the current CPI data, which stands at 3.87% annually, the market expects that the inflation reach 5.20% in October, 20 basis points above the 5% they anticipated last month.
Analysts estimated that the inflation This month it will be 0.60%, while they warned that during the next 12 months it will reach 6.75%, that is, above the range between 3% and 6%, within which the government plans to remain during the next 12 months. next 24 months.
The president of the BCU spoke on this topic days ago, Diego Labat, who admitted that CPI may have “some rebound” in the last quarter of the year. However, he clarified that the monetary entity’s projection is of the order of 5.7% over the 24-month horizon and “always within the range.”
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Analysts corrected upward expectations on the exchange rate
By focusing on the evolution of dollar, the Economic Expectations Survey (EEA) of BCU corrected upward the forecasts on the exchange rate. Analysts estimated that the US currency could close the year at 40 pesos, a value close to today’s, compared to the 39.40 pesos they expected last month for the end of 2023.
After a rising September and a similar behavior so far this month, beyond the last days of stagnation, the market believes that the dollar It will be planted this month around 39.71 pesos, that is, a little below the current value.
In turn, thinking about the next 12 months, the median of the responses of the analysts consulted considered that the note will reach 41.70 pesos by September of next year.
Source: Ambito
