He dollar closed the week at 39,442 pesos and accumulates an increase of 3.59% so far this month, maintaining a positive streak that could not stop even the fact that the US currency operated downwards for four consecutive days, falling in 5 of the last 7 wheels.
In this way, the US currency begins to approach market projections, which foresee a dollar to 39.71 pesos by the end of the month and raised the price for December by 1.52%, in accordance with the expectations of the analysts consulted monthly by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
The bill had started the month at 38,721 pesos and grew more than one peso until reaching a maximum of 39,967 pesos, its highest mark so far this year, but, after several days of ups and downs, it reached its current value, at that threatens to remain “ironed.”
Anyway, the dollar It managed to strengthen itself in the last two months and consolidated itself in the range of 39 pesos, although without climbing to 40, a level at which it has not operated since the end of last year. This situation occurs after the interbank reached its lowest value since the end of June. pre-pandemic, when it quoted 37,408 pesos.
Analysts’ expectations
In this context, the analysts consulted by the BCU in its Economic Expectations Survey They raised their projections and believe that the dollar It may close this month near 39.71 pesos.
At the same time, the US currency would close the year at 40 pesos, almost at the same level as in the same period of 2022, according to forecasts, which corrected upwards last month’s 39.40 pesos.
Finally, looking ahead to the next 12 months, the survey BCU He estimated that the bill will reach 41.70 pesos by September 2024.
Can the dollar continue to rise or will it stagnate?
When analyzing the factors for the future, it is possible that the price of the dollar tends to stagnate in the coming weeks and this is what the analysts’ forecast seems to indicate, with a difference of 60 cents between the current value and that of the end of December.
Added to this are the indicators of the country’s economy, mainly the inflation, which is falling and within the target range, although there may be a rebound between now and the end of the year, as anticipated by the president of the Central Bank himself, Diego Labat.
At the local level, the level of Monetary Policy Rate (TPM), which after the last reduction of 50 basis points remained at 9.50% and with the warning that the cycle of lower interest rates would be coming to an end.
It will also be necessary to evaluate the international panorama, mainly the decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) from the United States on reference rates, while the war between Israel and Hamas, along with its regionalization and extension, could alter the price of Petroleum and influence the behavior of investors.
Source: Ambito
