– The polls are giving a tie and, in principle, what one should think is that what Javier Milei has maintained in the campaign is not what he is going to execute. The version there is is that the entire team Mauricio Macri is the one who is going to be in charge of economic policy, which means in any case that he is going to seek a more shock, fiscal adjustment and an attempt to make a devaluation of fast currency and a consolidation of exchange rates in search. While the case of Sergio Massa It would be an approach where you will try to obtain some source of financing that will allow you to endure and continue stretching the process forward, it is a much more gradual picture. He will probably try to delay a fiscal adjustment, because the adjustment would be harsh. It is more likely that it will generate a inflationary spiral.
In any of the scenarios, with Milei and a recessionary scenario of strong economic contraction and strong relative price adjustments, or with Massa and greater volatility, to Uruguay no positive news Argentina during 2024.
How does the current Argentine situation affect Uruguay and what assessment do you make of how the government has handled the issue?
– It mainly affects the coast and to some extent the retail trade throughout the country, but the rest of society does not notice. There is nothing that can be done to make that price difference that exists today can be avoided. What, in any case, economic policy can do is mitigate this price gap in a very partial and absolutely insufficient way, but the price difference of three hundred percent is not compensated.
Unlike what happened other times, when price differences of this type were resolved through deeds with a large devaluation in Uruguay, that is not going to happen now, because the fundamentals of the economy are solid and furthermore the government deliberately, even if it tried to do so, could not achieve it. Therefore, the Executive will put in place “patch” measures to try to compensate for some severely affected activities. Stability is very important, but we should not make politics of this.
Are there any specific measures that should be taken?
– There are things that are being done and there are others that could be generated. For example, think about the custom VAT as an option, allow the people you are in Fray Bentos have a different VAT, much lower for certain products.
In Uruguay, beyond the political changes that have taken place, has economic stability continued to be guaranteed?
Yes, it is a stable, solid economy. Now we have a slightly more fragile fiscal situation, but the country that enjoys a combination of economic and political stability differential. Chili presents better numbers than Uruguay, but what Chile does not have today is the level of political stability. So, the country combines that equation of stability and balance.
What management challenges will the next government have to face?
– A future government has to be aware that there are 300,000 people who are the hard core of poverty, which is mainly made up of children and adolescents. The entire policy menu that is family’s asignationsthe card Uruguay Socialit must be promoted and strengthened, because there is a set of opportunities and improved transfer of that population to give them access and give them security.
On the other hand, I think Uruguay has to move forward on the issue of inequality of opportunities, which excessively affects young people and essentially heads of households. Also in employment issues, considering a care system to enable these women heads of household to be able to reconcile and dialogue with their work. In other words, we have to rethink our subject matter. social protectionbecause the challenges we have today are different from what we had.
Did this government prioritize the so-called gold mesh more?
– He came with that mandate. This government was to think about the “gold mesh”, that is why the center-right won, which always thinks about the “gold mesh”, because it believes that there is a possible spill, and therefore the government did well to think about them, because it is the mandate he received. There are those of us who do not believe in the spill and believe that we must act differently, but that is part of the logic of the democratic debate and it is between the center-left and the center-right in the world that they differ because of this.
Would you be part of the economic team of a possible Frente Amplio government?
– I am willing, first, if we agree, to minimally work and collaborate in a position for which I am called as long as I feel useful. But I insist, there is a year and a half left. Now, the party is in the hands of those seeking votes, that will be discussed in February or March 2025.
But have you had any conversations?
– I have always had conversations with politicians. In the previous period, I spoke with Daniel Martinez a lot and I talked with Luis Lacalle Pou. And in this period I have spoken with Yamandu Orsi on some occasions and I have continued talking with the current president. For many years, I have had conversations as an economic analyst with people who make decisions in Uruguay. And those conversations I’ve had now are no different than the ones I’ve had in the past.
Agora as a space for reflection
Is it a progressive think tank?
– A businessman asked me exactly that question a few months ago in a meeting we had where he told me “this is the social democratic think tank” and my answer was “no.” Why not? Because in the think tank there are many people who are part of it who I don’t know if they adhere to that vision, because the way we bring people together are citizens who have different experiences, different visions and come from different worlds, some of which do not I don’t even know what your vote or inclination is.
The people who are at the forefront of this are people who have a look progressive in a broad sense: we fully adhere to the democracy already a functioning plural political parties and that we have the idea that the State has to have a relevant role to attack a set of issues linked to income distribution, to equity and access to public goods. Those topics are surely shared by all of us who are in Ágora. After that is translated into something that serves a political vision, it is more difficult because we are very diverse. There are people from National Partythere are people from Colorado Partythere are people from Wide Front And there are people who I have no idea what they vote for. So, the bet is to generate debates.
Source: Ambito
