Argentina faces the presidential elections this Sunday in a runoff between Sergio Massacurrent Minister of Economy and candidate for Union for the Homelandand the libertarian Javier Mileinational deputy and party representative Freedom Advances.
The bilateral relations between Uruguay and Argentina have experienced moments of tension, especially due to the disagreements over the opening of the Mercosur what the president proposes Luis Lacalle Pou to which the Argentine president, Alberto Fernandez, he objected harshly. On the other hand, the exodus of consumption by Uruguayans to Argentina due to the exchange difference remains a problem for the local economy.
In dialogue with Ambit, the analyst in international relations and director of the Institute of International Business of the Catholic University of Uruguay (UCU), Ignacio Bartesaghi, analyzed the possible consequences in terms of economic and political relations that will be experienced Uruguay with the change of Argentine government.
What are the scenarios the country will face depending on whether Sergio Massa or Javier Milei triumphs?
– You are very expectant of the result. They are two candidates that have very different implications for the international relations of Argentina, in its bilateral agenda with the Uruguay and in the Mercosur. On the one hand, you have a candidate like Sergio Massa that has a vision of continuity of the government of Alberto Fernandez that is not necessarily aligned with the interests of the Uruguay and where it was not possible to have a good bilateral relationship and there were no coincidences in the Mercosur.
As to Javier Milei, There are many uncertainties regarding their policies. Specifically the one that has to do with international aspects. But what has become clear is that it does not share the current Mercosur, which could be favorable for Uruguayan intentions to make the regional agreement more flexible. With him, with the risk that his policy entails in a large number of aspects, an opportunity could open for Uruguay can discuss or rediscuss things that you have not been able to do with Alberto Fernandez and Lula Da Silva.
What would happen to Mercosur?
– What could be expected with Massa, beyond the fact that he may have his own stamp and having promised a government with broader political agreements, is that Argentina becomes very attached to Brazil and a classic and political Mercosur. Therefore, I do not see a convenience for Uruguay regarding bilateral relations with Mercosur unless there is a profound change in Massa regarding the current Argentine government. In case you succeed, Uruguay must review its strategy in the region based on a balance of power that it would not be so favorable if Argentina and Brazil join forces, which have the intention of agreeing on an agenda that Uruguay does not share.
In the case of Milei it can be foreseen, based on the statements of his possible chancellor Diana Mondino, that the current Mercosur does not serve the economy it seeks to impose. However, Uruguay does not want to destroy Mercosur, but rather agrees modernize it and make it more flexible. So, in the event that it wins, Uruguay would have an ally at that specific point, while at the same time a balance of forces could once again be seen in the bloc since there would not be an automatic alignment between Brazil and Argentina.
The advance of the extreme right is a phenomenon seen worldwide and Argentina was no exception. Do you think that, if Javier Milei wins, it would be an opportunity for this type of movement to emerge in Uruguay?
Uruguay It does not have the structures for this type of right to emerge at the moment. The country has solid political parties, renewals are taking place in all parties and even new ones have emerged such as Town meeting that do not seem to reflect this phenomenon. The structures and political history of the Uruguay, the democratic alternation, the strength of the institutions acts as a limit so that these types of movements do not appear. I don’t think that the fact that Milei wins in Argentina will generate Uruguay a risk of these types of figures emerging, although these phenomena should never be ruled out anywhere in the world.
The Uruguayan market suffers from the Argentine devaluation that causes it to lose more competitiveness every day. Are the scenarios going to be different if Milei or Massa win?
Uruguay has to prepare for an Argentina that is going to continue with a crisis that causes the devaluation of the currency and that affects our competitiveness not only on the border, but at the national level, which will cost the country losses of billions of dollars. Dollars. That is not a problem that neither Milei nor Massa will solve soon.
The neighboring country is going to continue with protectionist measures and social problems. Argentina is going to take time to recover because what its population has lost is confidence. As long as confidence is not recovered in the entire economic and financial system, it is very difficult for it to regain strength in its currency and, as long as this continues, the devaluation will continue. Therefore, we have to look at where there is an opportunity to once again discuss issues in which Uruguay had lost strength.
Source: Ambito
