He dollar in Uruguay moves further and further away from market expectations that were barely carried away by the optimism of the bullish rally in October when adjusting their projections for the end of the year: with one cent less compared to Tuesday, the currency remains afloat in the range of 39 pesos, but very far from 40 pesos.
He dollar remained relatively stable at the close of trading yesterday, and was quoted at 39,091 pesos according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). Although the loss was barely one cent, the truth is that it is the fourth consecutive day down and is coming off another streak of six consecutive setbacks last week.
In this way, the US currency not only accumulates a decline in 2.21% in November and of 2.45% so far this year; but also continues to move away from market expectations, which for December expect a dollar to 40.10 pesos, while today it should close at 39.95 pesos, as projected by financial actors just 15 days ago.
On par with the global dollar
The truth is that November was a bad month for dollar at general levels, since in the world it also dropped significantly, even losing more than 3.6% of its valueafter hitting July highs on the 1st of this month.
In fact, on Tuesday dollar index fell to almost four-month lows, driven by comments from the authorities of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) that enabled the possibility of an advance in the reference interest rate cut scheme; or, at least, greater depth during the first half of 2024.
In that sense, yesterday it closed at 102,676 units, while today it opened minimally lower, at 102,670 units.
However, throughout the day some statements already occurred that contributed to stabilize the US currencywhich reached highs of 103,510 units, showing an evident recovery in its value.
One of those who brought certainty to the markets was the president of the Fed in New York, John Williams, by confirming that although it is likely that the entity has ended with rate hikes, these may be raised again in the event that inflationary pressures do not continue on the path of moderation. “The future remains very uncertain, and our decisions will continue to depend on the data,” said the official, 12 days before a new meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
For her part, the president of the organization in San Francisco, Mary Daly, also expressed herself along the same lines, saying that “it is still too early to know” if the Fed has finished raising rates. “We have to be prepared to raise rates again if necessary or to say that the tightening cycle is over if that is appropriate,” she clarified.
In Uruguay, this may mean a recovery, even if slight, in the local dollar price, although it is most likely that the price of the currency will remain “flat” in the range of 39 pesos. As for market expectations, they will probably moderate again after a November that was responsible for almost completely regressing with respect to the progress in correcting the exchange rate delay achieved in October.
Source: Ambito
