The CPI was 0.34% in November and the government is on track to close the year within the margin estimated by the Central Bank of Uruguay.
The inflation accelerated again in November and reached 4.96% annually, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is prepared monthly by National Institute of Statistics (INE), so that it seems to be consolidated at a new level, within the target range established by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
He CPI registered an increase of 0.34% compared to last month’s data and has an accumulated variation of 5.22% so far this year, although with the expectation that in December there will be a drop in the indicator to close the year below 6%, that is, within the government’s objective.
The item that became most expensive was furniture, household goods and other regular household items, with an increase of 1.20%, driven by the 2.70% increase in the domestic service. There was also a sharp increase in the transport, of 0.92%, driven by an increase of 8.60% for passenger transportation with a driver and a 13.54% increase in airfare, while there was a 0.99% increase in recreation, sports and culture, with an increase of 5.89% on the prices of tourist packages.
As to food and not alcoholic beverages, the increase was 0.07%, with increases of 2.90% in nuts and decreases in meat and other derived products (0.17%) and in Vegetables, tubers and legumes (0.07%).
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Core inflation rose again
With respect to Underlying inflation, That is, the CPI excluding fresh fruits and vegetables, and fuels, the INE reflected a new increase of 0.31%. Thus, this indicator added its fourth consecutive increase and only had a decrease so far this year (0.17% in July).
On the other hand, the non-tradable inflation remained at 6.4%, the same as last month, while the tradable It increased to 2.3%, when it came from 1.5% last month.
What are the market expectations?
It is worth noting that the analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) estimated that the inflation During 2023 it was going to remain at 5.2%, similar to the current level and within the target range. However, business owners anticipated that it would climb to 7%, according to the most recent survey of the INE.
The median response changes over the horizon, since the analysts consulted by the BCU they project a CPI 6.5% in the next 12 months and 6.1% for the next 24 months, while entrepreneurs predict 7% next year and 7.2% for September 2025.
Source: Ambito
