8 important Earth systems are in danger of tipping over

In addition to five so-called tipping systems that are already threatened, three more could be threatened if global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees in the 2030s, explained the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which was involved in the report. However, the report also sees opportunities for “positive tipping points”.

One of the report’s lead authors, PIK researcher Sina Loriani, said exceeding tipping systems can “trigger fundamental and sometimes abrupt changes.” These could “irreversibly determine the fate of significant parts of our Earth system for the next hundreds or thousands of years.”

According to PIK, more than 200 researchers were involved in the work, led by the British University of Exeter. It is the “most comprehensive overview of tipping points in the Earth system to date,” explained PIK researcher Loriani.

Tipping points are when certain climate phenomena exceed thresholds

Climate researchers speak of tipping points when certain climate phenomena exceed thresholds beyond which they can no longer be reversed. The authors of the report include the tipping systems currently under threat, including the ice sheet on Greenland and the subpolar vortex circulation in the north of the Atlantic Ocean. The systems that may be additionally threatened from the 2030s include northern forests, mangroves and seagrass meadows.

The analysis makes it clear that current climate change could cause “fundamental changes in key elements of the Earth system,” explained PIK researcher Jonathan Donges. These could in turn lead to “violent conflict or the collapse of political institutions” due to their impact on human societies.

Also opportunities for “positive tipping points”

However, according to PIK, the authors of the report also see opportunities for so-called “positive tipping points” that could be crucial in “stabilizing the planet and avoiding negative effects of Earth system tipping points on societies”. Such “non-linear changes” can already be observed in the markets for renewable energy and electric vehicles. Furthermore, political decisions could trigger these “abrupt” positive social and technological changes.

The report on the tipping points is due to be presented on Wednesday morning (local time) at the current COP28 world climate conference in Dubai.

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