He global dollar collapsed yesterday after the announcement of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) of the maintenance of the interest rates on the verge of the start of a cycle of cuts for 2024. Meanwhile, in Uruguay, the currency closed about 40 pesos and the question is whether it will be able to overcome what appears to be a ceiling for the price.
Although the advertisements of the Fed They were not, in themselves, surprising — the US central bank kept reference interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, something that markets expected based on the country’s economic data; Investors did not welcome with open arms that 17 of 19 monetary authority officials estimated a 75 basis point cut during the next year.
“Although we believe that our monetary policy rate is at o near its peak for the adjustment cycle, the economy has surprised the forecasters,” said the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell.
In this way, the dollar index fell a 0.82% and reached its lowest level since November 30, closing yesterday’s day at 102.89 units, although falling to 102.477 units—something that had not happened since last August 10. In turn, the negative behavior continued during today’s opening, which stood at 102,350 and touched minimum of 101,957 units.
This is because investors understand that the dollar you will lose part of your returns in the coming months, given the rate cuts by the Fed. In fact, operators are valuing a 72% chance of a cut of rates in March, compared to 49% the previous Wednesday; and of 94% for Maydepending on the tool FedWatch of the CME Group.
What can happen in Uruguay?
In Uruguay, meanwhile, the dollar had a behavior contrary to the global scenario and chained its fifth day of consecutive riseremaining very few cents away from reaching 40 pesos.
With an increase of 0.28%, the US currency closed at 39,960 pesosaccording to the official quote of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). In this way, it managed to appreciate 2.22% in this bullish rally that it is going through.
So far this month, meanwhile, the dollar accumulates a positive balance of 2.15%and the behavior of the last few days managed to reduce the depreciation of the year to 0.28%.
The next few days may be of greater appreciation, continuing the bullish trend current and confirming market expectations that, according to Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) of the BCU in November, by the end of the year it would be located in 40.10 pesos.
In any case, we will have to see how the international context and the global situation of the dollar in the local exchange market, and if the currency will be able to maintain the strength of recent days despite the sharp fall in the world.
Source: Ambito
