Image: win
The weather has always been a popular topic of conversation. Regardless of whether it’s an innocuous chat between acquaintances, weather lady Christa Kummer’s choice of shoes or climate expertise from ORF weather chief Marcus Wadsak – almost everyone can have a say when it comes to too little rain, too humid weather, oppressive heat or a lack of sunshine. It will rarely happen that the weather conditions are favorable for everyone and the flow of conversation comes to a halt.
Manfred Essl is someone who has been paying close attention to the weather for decades. The 50-year-old postal worker from Bad Hall has been interested in meteorology since he was twelve. The “Weatherman virus” Essl received from his grandfather: “He reported the weather for the ORF every day at 6:05 a.m. for ten years, after which I took over”says Essl. This only ended last year. The TV company reduced the more than 80 weather detectors scattered throughout the state to 55. “I would have needed a special teletext connection, that was too complicated for me”says the weather expert, who now passes on his values to Life Radio.
“If you have years of statistics like I do, you can roughly predict how the weather and climate will develop and what lies ahead”says Essl. For years he has been meticulously handwriting all the data – temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed – in his weather book.
And a lot can be learned from this. So be this summer “very interesting” been. “By July 20th we were on our way to a summer of the century like 2015″says the Bad Hall weatherman. At that time he measured 36 tropical days – days with a maximum daily temperature of at least 30 degrees – in the spa town.
But with the first Adriatic depression everything changed. “On July 25th summer collapsed and there were enormous amounts of rain, on August 5th even 48 liters in one day.” The second Mediterranean low from August 27th meant that there was twice the normal amount of precipitation in August at 229 liters, which meant there was no drought damage. Overall, despite advancing climate change, Bad Hall had a slightly above-average summer with 17 tropical days. The long-term average is ten to 13 tropical days.
“We experienced the fifth hottest summer this year”says Essl, who has further observations to offer: “In summer it has become an average of 0.8 to 1.1 degrees warmer within three years.” The winter nights have also become one or two degrees milder every year. “In the past five or six years we have not had a winter in which the temperature fell below minus 15 degrees.”
Two cold periods
He predicts a rather cold winter this season. “Due to the two hot periods in summer, there will also be two cold periods”says Essl, “Not record values, but for two or three weeks the values will be below minus ten degrees at night.”
But even a meticulous weatherman like Essl can be wrong: a few weeks ago in an interview he put the chance of a white Christmas at 65:35 percent. Unfortunately, the current weather forecast means this hope is melting away.
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Source: Nachrichten