He agro showed a strong recovery during the third quarter and became one of the main sectors that drove the rise of the GDP seasonally adjusted, reported days ago by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
In this way, the agricultural sector seems to have left behind drought that it went through during the last year and in the July-September period it signed an increase of 9.6%, according to the report of National accounts prepared by the BCU.
The improvement of agro had to do with a growth of the task, linked to the increase in external demand, while there was a greater forestry activity, associated with the start-up of UPM 2 and the highest sales of cellulose.
Regarding this phenomenon, the economist and partner of Exante, Florencia Carriquiry, He said in dialogue with En Perspectiva that the sector had “a very significant rebound after the contraction of the first part of the year.”
For Carriquiry, The growth had to do with greater livestock activity “with more extraction of livestock and more shipment of milk,” but it was also associated with the level of forestry activity.
What is expected from economic activity in the future?
Looking to the future, the economist indicated that a recovery of the economic activity, although he admitted that there was “an increase in GDP somewhat lower than what we had estimated in previous forecasts, which were 1.5%.”
For Carraquiry, In recent months “the economy would have continued to grow” and he estimated that the GDP variation in this year’s average “will be closer to 0% than the 0.5% that we had been managing.”
Finally, he predicted that by 2024 the projections will remain at an improvement of close to 3%. Still, he warned there will be “some one-time boosts,” such as the post-drought rebound and increased production of cellulose.
Thus, the Exante partner defined with respect to the trend growth of the economy that “aims at average growth of around 2 or 2.5% annual average,” always without counting shocks of any kind.
Source: Ambito
