Influenced by the behavior of the global currency, the US currency continues to move away from market expectations.
He dollar in Uruguay fell again for the fourth consecutive day, affirming its relative stability in the range of 39 pesos and its distance from expectations of the market with respect to the price for the end of the year.
He dollar stepped back another 0.30% at the close of yesterday’s session with respect to Monday’s, and thus chained fourth consecutive fall after having been a few cents away from hitting the “ceiling” of 40 pesos. Although the price was strongly influenced by the behavior of the currency globally, the local market is concerned by the fact that, in these last four business days, the US currency lost 1.84% of its value —with the bulk of the fall accumulated in the first two days.
In this way, the ticket was quoted at 39,223 pesos, according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). And although it still remains with some comfort in the range of 39 pesos, the significant fluctuation and the ups and downs that is registering the dollar, sets off the alarms a few days before the end of 2023, given the inability to maintain real stability in the exchange rate.
Meanwhile, the monthly increase is already just one 0.29%, when five days ago it was 2.22%. So far this year, the decline is 2.09%, while the official price continues to move away from market expectations, which projected a median of 40.10 pesos per dollar. In this sense, we will have to see what adjustments to the forecasts emerge from the latest update of the Economic Expectations Survey (EEE) of the BCU, which will be published next week.
For the moment, the idea of a dollar at 40 pesos This year it is almost impossible, unless a global phenomenon occurs that triggers the US currency and has an impact on the Uruguayan exchange market.
The global dollar remains in low territory
Meanwhile, in the international markets the impact of the ads is still felt United States Federal Reserve (Fed)which led investors to consider as probable the possibility that the interest rate cut reference point—which are currently at their all-time high range—begins during the first quarter of 2024.
In this scenario, the dollar index —which compares the US currency against a basket of six other world currencies—closed lower yesterday in 101,796 units, falling 0.72% and reaching minimum values in more than four months. Today, meanwhile, it already shows a slight recovery, with an opening at 101,805 units and peaks that reached 102,105 units.
This international panorama, without major changes in recent days, allows us to predict that the local exchange market It won’t have big movements either.so market expectations are likely to be adjusted downward in the next BCU survey.
Source: Ambito
