The dollar index hit a new five-month low as MSCI is on track to close out its best year since 2017.
He dollar At a global level, a downward path marked after the last meeting of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and the possibility that the start of interest rate cuts may be closer than investors initially expected. Meanwhile in Uruguay The behavior of the currency is similar, and is moving further and further away from the moderate market expectations.
He global dollar is going through a tough time after having started the second semester on a more positive path: the dollar index continues to fall and is on track to close the year with a drop of 2.6%, thus breaking two consecutive years of strong gains.
In this context, the indicator that compares the US currency with a basket of six world currencies touched a new five month low closing yesterday’s day at 100,654 units. On Wednesday, its value had been 101.104 points, so it fell 0.44%. Likewise, today it opened lower once again, at 100,560 units, but reached a low of 100,312.
This is mainly due to the fact that the markets are valuing the possibility of a drop in interest rates on the part of the Fed in March 2024, sooner than expected in the first projections, according to the tool FedWatch of CME. Investors’ belief that dollar profitability It will go down progressively sooner rather than later, which has made us lose interest in this currency; which moved, in parallel, once again towards the emerging currencies.
In fact, the MSCI index Emerging market currencies hit 20-month highs and are on track to close out their best year since 2017, with annual gains of 5%.
Uruguay follows the global trend
Meanwhile in Uruguay he dollar It replicates the behavior that the currency has globally and is clearly moving downwards. Thus, yesterday it closed a value 0.45% lower than that of Wednesday—a movement similar to that of the dollar index—, and its price was 39,017 pesos, according to official data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
This behavior not only marked its fourth consecutive day of decline, but also left the currency on the verge of falling from the 39 peso rangein which, so far, it has managed to maintain itself throughout the month with different ups and downs.
Likewise, and with this setback, the dollar It has a negative variation so far in December of 0.26% —which distances it from the market expectations recently adjusted downwards, which expect a price of 39.5 pesos—; while during the year there has been a drop of 2.63%, also similar to that of the dollar index.
Source: Ambito
