The economic activity increased 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, according to the latest Monthly Economic Activity Indicator(IMAE) prepared monthly by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
In addition to the monthly improvement, the IMAE registered an increase of 2% compared to the same month of 2022, while it showed an increase of 0.2% in the trend-cycle, forming an optimistic outlook for the projections for the last quarter of the year.
In this way, the indicator improved after the 0.9% drop in September and promises to give impetus to the economy for the end of the year, after a third quarter where the GDP had a seasonally adjusted increase of 1%.
On this point, the Chamber of Commerce and Services of Uruguay (Ccsuy) pointed out that the activity will close 2023 with growth close to 0% and close to a level of stagnation.
An economic recovery is expected by the end of the year
By echoing the evolution of the IMAE, the Economist Aldo Lema He indicated through his X account that “the worst moment in the current economic cycle was in May” and highlighted the recovery with ups and downs.
In turn, he predicted that this situation “would continue to become more explicit in the coming months” and estimated that, according to the indicator, “the Uruguayan economy “It would have continued to grow in the fourth quarter compared to the third and would have expanded between 2 and 3% year-on-year.”
The CPA economist Ferrere stated along the same lines, Nicolas Cichevski, which highlighted that the IMAE “increased 0.23% in trend-cycle in October, which annualized is equivalent to a rate of 2.8%”, so he considered that “for the last quarter, the GDP “It is set to grow somewhat above 1% seasonally adjusted and around 2% year-on-year.”
At the same time, Ignacio Umpiérrez, member of the Fiscal Advisory Council (CFA), highlighted the economic recovery and compared that “just as 2022 went from more to less, it was confirmed that 2023 would be from less to more, to the extent that the shock of the drought was left behind” and highlighted that “the dynamism would continue in 2024.”
Source: Ambito
